Shot Selection: Foundation of Tactics

When is the running down the line actually the “high percentage” shot? Here’s what seems like a simple question. Which is better, a shot that you can make 100% of the time, or a shot that you can make 30% of the time? That depends on what happens next. If you hit the shot that you can make 100% of the time but you lose 90% of those points, then you win 10% of the total points. If you hit a shot that you can only make 30% of the time but each time you make it you win the point, then you win 30% of the points. So the answer is that the 30% shot is actually the better shot. It’s the shot that gives you a better chance to actually win more points, in a specific situation. The Hard Part The hard part is knowing what shots yield what outcomes in what circumstances against what opponents. The reality is that it’s never cut and dried. That’s why so few players are really good match players. They don’t have an intuitive feel for what the probabilities of various situations really are, given all the variables on both sides of…