French Open

[stotty]

In terms of achievements, Novak now stands as the games' greatest player by pretty much any metric you care to mention. Rafa gets it on clay, of course, but any any other surface Novak has Rafa by the scruff of the neck. You can see Novak equalling Roger's 8 Wimbledon titles this year as well, since, grass, in my opinion, is actually his best surface.

I felt a little sorry for Ruud. For 90 percent of that first set he was the better player yet came away with nothing. I think that is something you seldom hear Novak credited for; his ability to play below par in a set yet still somehow win it.

I tend to agree with Jim about Carlos's ceiling. He has the hallmarks of a great but we cannot be sure just yet. I hope he will go on to do great things. I like him a lot.

[jimlosaltos]

That was me on the Nadal comparison. My point also was Alcaraz is going to have a great Sampras Lendl Agassi type career. Just not big 3. But who knows, it is just an opinion obviously, worth nothing.

Worth a good deal here.

Hey, I'd "settle" for a merely Sampras career <g>

Just saying Alcaraz's ceiling isn't clear, to me anyway. At the end of the first set, I thought the semifinal, and the title, was his to lose. And he managed to do that, but in a surprising way. One that's curable.

I remember a 19 yo Edberg being so nervous he couldn't (literally) get a ball in the court vs McEnroe at the US Open. Kid turned out OK.

[stroke]

That was as impressive as it gets, playing like that at age 37 in the most physically challenging test in ATP tennis. He appears to have not lost a step, or even half a step. He will obviously be the favorite at Wimbledon and US Open. Too good. He stuck a fork in it, and all the tennis records. 52 winners, 32 unforced errors for the match.

[stroke]

Novak is really tucking in now at two sets to love. Giving very little away and hitting the ball as clean as a whistle. I have seen Novak play live four times and don't think I have seen anyone hit the ball as clean as him.

I still remember seeing him play on the Grandstand court at the Nasdaq Open, which I think it was called at the time. I was right behind the baseline, 1st or 2nd row. His hitting posture off both sides, and his super efficient movement, was stand alone. Probably the last time he played a match anywhere other than the Stadium.

[stotty]

Novak is really tucking in now at two sets to love. Giving very little away and hitting the ball as clean as a whistle. I have seen Novak play live four times and don't think I have seen anyone hit the ball as clean as him.

[stroke]

Novak now at a 96% implied probability of winning. That seems a bit low.

[stotty]

Yes terrific first set by Ruud....nothing to show for it. The first set was very attritional and Ruud could continue that route as the younger man in the hope he can wear Novak down a little.

It's a little dull as a spectacle. Ruud stands yards back to return and loops returns high up to the baseline. Always the makings of a dull game in my view...just gets rallies off to an attritional start. The only player that could make this final more watchable is Roger.

[stroke]

Novak locks down in 1st set tiebreaker, showing once again how he is the the best tiebreaker player ever. He is now at an 89+% implied probability of winning the match. Ruud played a great set, just not good enough.

[johnyandell]

Dimbleby,
We will try to film her at some point...

[stroke]

Bit disappointed to read the latter part of this thread and find no celebration of the Sabalenka-Muchova match.

Always hoped the stars might align and give Muchova a season in the spotlight. Shame she's about to bump into the immovable object in Swiatek, but she has looked like an unstoppable force at times, using all the variety you could ask for. Hope she has enough in the tank to give Iga something to think about.

Muchova keeps the racket in front of her body on both wings and as such is as close to a poster-girl for BG's agenda of teaching women to hit 'ATP' technique as any - more than Iga, imo (I await to be corrected by those who know better!).

regards
Rob

Nothing gives me pause like some poster that comes out of nowhere and is "disappointed" in what we have going on here. Too good.

[dimbleby69]

Well, it seems unlikely that the mens' final will match the womens', but here's hoping.

Muchova showed the world the variety of her skills and made an event of it. Chris Evert was doing commentary for Eurosport and kept pointing out that she repeatedly got to 30 up in games and then went conservative instead of staying aggressive. It's a slightly counter-intuitive point, given how many times Karolina missed by inches, but it did seem to play out that way in the 3rd set in particular. Iga came out aggressive when getting backed into a corner in games.

But it's always a pleasure to watch KM, in my opinion. She has a genuine all-court game and is a wonderful shot-maker (playing hero - Roger Federer). Without her approach today's final would be...well...what the mens' final promises to be.

I would love for TP to put her shots in the archive. Lots of great slo-mo on changeovers in today's coverage. On the forehand she seems to fit into BG's profile of someone who frequently 'almost' has a straight arm at contact. 160 degrees maybe? Wonderful extension. On serve there were many replays showing the full rotation of her shoulder on first and second balls. Could JY or BG be persuaded into an analysis? I'd like to think BG will be showing his female students some video of KM in action.

Sad to say, today may prove to be the closest she gets to a Grand Slam title, but I hope not. If she goes deep in future draws we will have been richly entertained, either way.

Congrats to Iga. Rode a dip during the 2nd/start of 3rd and unlike KM, has a more easily reproducible game under pressure. Even if it is less exciting to watch.

regards
Rob

[stotty]

Novak is the big favorite of course, with an implied probability of winning at about 81.6% vs Ruud. It is clear my take on Novak not being able to not the the rope-a-dope in big matches was incorrect. He certainly did not do it vs Alcaraz. He was clinical, all business. The only hope Ruud has to me is that Novak rope-a-dopes/throws a set or 2 and gives Ruud too much rope, so to speak.

What could make it al least interesting is that there is so much at stake. No matter how much he's won Novak just has to be nervous going into that match because winning it is record-breaking in numerous ways...and Ruud has zero to lose. I still don't give Ruud much more hope than the bookies having said that.

[stroke]

Since Ruud hasn't won a single set in four matches vs Djokovic, I assume Djoko is a prohibitive favorite.

The wild card is Djokovic's continuing arm problems. It's curious that I have seen little discussion of Djokovic's medial time outs during the same semifinal and how it affected his play. I wonder if not all broadcasts noticed the impact. On NBC here in US, Mary Carrillo noted that after Djokovic had treatment for his forearm, all his shots slowed down -- second serve was 10 MPH slower in the second set than in the first, and various numbers of first serve, forehand, backhand -- all noticeably slower.

If Djokovic's arm acted up after one set of play on Friday, surely there's a risk of it acting up in a potential 5 sets on Sunday?

Alcaraz was returning more aggressively in the second, presumably as a result, and when he was able to win that set I thought he'd win their match in 4 sets.

Since someone mentioned not seeing the end -- Alcaraz was candid afterwards saying his cramps were caused by nerves. Said, he'd never been so nervous right from the start of the match. Had some issues with cramps back when he was 18 yo, I believe.

These weren't typical cramps targeting one muscle. They started in his right hand. His fingers were visibility spasmed, twisted. For several points Alcaraz could not hit a forehand -- literally having trouble holding the racket. Then the cramps "moved" to his leg. Since he can't be helped off without defaulting and has to get to the bench in order to get treatment, Alcaraz literally hopped on his right, was it, leg to the bench. Like his idol Fed he wasn't going to retire -- but he had little chance from there on. Tried to shorten points, gamely.

Someone contrasted this with Nadal. But I remember Rafa retiring from a number of matches when he was younger. Dehydration in Miami, vs Davydenko in Paris, vs Andy Murray somewhere ... a few others. Vague memories.

I wouldn't judge Alcaraz too harshly, myself.

That was me on the Nadal comparison. My point also was Alcaraz is going to have a great Sampras Lendl Agassi type career. Just not big 3. But who knows, it is just an opinion obviously, worth nothing.

[stroke]

Novak is the big favorite of course, with an implied probability of winning at about 81.6% vs Ruud. It is clear my take on Novak not being able to not the the rope-a-dope in big matches was incorrect. He certainly did not do it vs Alcaraz. He was clinical, all business. The only hope Ruud has to me is that Novak rope-a-dopes/throws a set or 2 and gives Ruud too much rope, so to speak.

[jimlosaltos]

Iga's titles

2020: Roland Garros

2021:
WTA 500 Adelaide
WTA 1000 Rome

2022:
WTA 1000 Doha
WTA 1000 Indian Wells
WTA 1000 Miami
WTA 500 Stuttgart
WTA 1000 Rome
Roland Garros
US Open
WTA 500 San Diego

2023:
WTA 500 Doha
WTA 500 Stuttgart
Roland Garros