French Open

[stotty]

Great first set by Novak. We are in the unusual situation however where it's Novak who is going to have to keep up the level of play. Anything less and he could get overrun....you can just feel it.

[stotty]

Just as I thought Novak cannot hit a ball past Carlos but is doing a beautiful job of keeping him off balance so far.

5-2 Novak

[stotty]

Novak has stepped up to the plate as we all expected. Carlos looks very dangerous at times. You feel Novak is really going to have to keep this form up to keep Carlos at bay...so far Carlos has been kept slightly off balance.

[jimlosaltos]

I am expecting Djokovic to play to a high level and be ultra consistent. I doubt for a single moment he will set out to hit more winners than Carlos, but he will try and control play in terms what wing Carlos is allowed to hit from. In the bigger matches Novak nearly always finds a better length than in lesser matches.

If Carlos has one weakness it's that he gets quite loose at times. Against many opponents it doesn't matter much but against Novak it might be costly.

On balance, and on current form, I make Carlos slight favourite. I think he could disturb Novak with his drop shot and hit enough percentage winners (an Arthur Ashe term) to do the job. I'm really looking forward to the match.

Should/could be quite good. Your point on Djokovic's depth improving with pressure is spot on.

Strange that Alcaraz and Djokovic haven't met since Madrid last year.

[stotty]

Craig O'Shannessy has lengthy analysis, with by his own admission, "too many numbers"

But in the 0-4 shot category Craig promotes so often, Alcaraz has won 62.3% vs "only" 55.8% for Djokovic.

Craig: "Djokovic has slightly more winners but has A LOT more winners hit against him. Djokovic has hit 51 more winners than his opponents, but Alcaraz has hit 91. Djokovic only has 10 more forehand winners, while Alcaraz has 42. Djokovic only has five more backhand winners, while Alcaraz has 19.

Craig's summary: "Lastly, look at how opponents have hit winners against Alcaraz. Mainly with the forehand (37) and at the net (22). That’s a blueprint for Djokovic as well. Here’s a potential problem for the Serb. He has enjoyed hitting 41 backhand winners, but opponents have only hit 12 against Alcaraz. If Djokovic thinks he can use his backhand to hit a lot of winners, that would be a strategic mistake. It’s tough to do that vs. Alcaraz. Maybe a couple of backhands down the line or well-placed backhand drop shots. But that’s not going to be enough to drive him to victory.

"It’s all about the forehand and finishing at net."

Craig picks Djokovic in 5 sets.

I am expecting Djokovic to play to a high level and be ultra consistent. I doubt for a single moment he will set out to hit more winners than Carlos, but he will try and control play in terms what wing Carlos is allowed to hit from. In the bigger matches Novak nearly always finds a better length than in lesser matches.

If Carlos has one weakness it's that he gets quite loose at times. Against many opponents it doesn't matter much but against Novak it might be costly.

On balance, and on current form, I make Carlos slight favourite. I think he could disturb Novak with his drop shot and hit enough percentage winners (an Arthur Ashe term) to do the job. I'm really looking forward to the match.

[jimlosaltos]

Craig O'Shannessy has lengthy analysis, with by his own admission, "too many numbers"

But in the 0-4 shot category Craig promotes so often, Alcaraz has won 62.3% vs "only" 55.8% for Djokovic.

Craig: "Djokovic has slightly more winners but has A LOT more winners hit against him. Djokovic has hit 51 more winners than his opponents, but Alcaraz has hit 91. Djokovic only has 10 more forehand winners, while Alcaraz has 42. Djokovic only has five more backhand winners, while Alcaraz has 19.

Craig's summary: "Lastly, look at how opponents have hit winners against Alcaraz. Mainly with the forehand (37) and at the net (22). That’s a blueprint for Djokovic as well. Here’s a potential problem for the Serb. He has enjoyed hitting 41 backhand winners, but opponents have only hit 12 against Alcaraz. If Djokovic thinks he can use his backhand to hit a lot of winners, that would be a strategic mistake. It’s tough to do that vs. Alcaraz. Maybe a couple of backhands down the line or well-placed backhand drop shots. But that’s not going to be enough to drive him to victory.

"It’s all about the forehand and finishing at net."

Craig picks Djokovic in 5 sets.

[stroke]

Zverev is a very slight favorite over Ruud. I am a bit surprised, I would have had Ruud as the slight favorite. Stotty likened what Novak faces vs Alcaraz is similar to the Fed puzzle, and I somewhat agree. I do think Alcaraz' forehand is bigger than Feds was, and his backhand is much more unlikely to give away too many errors. And Alcaraz may have the best court coverage I have ever seen. And most importantly, this rope a dope Novak has mastered, on full display vs Khachanov, is problematic vs Alcaraz, but I really don't think Novak can stop it at this time.

[jimlosaltos]

Ruud has reached the semi-finals for the third time from his last five Grand Slams.

Next up Zverev who leads their H2H 3-1, but ... Ruud won their most recent in Miami only 2+ months back.

I can't really tell if Zverev has his A game back yet from last year's disastrous injury in his semi vs Rafa. Serve looks great, but in sections I've seen lots of UFEs. Did he always make this? I know his forehand is the less reliable wing, but is it back to form?

[stotty]

Makes sense -- on form, with Djoko's health "questions". And yet I'd be nervous betting money against someone who this late in his career, still seems to "just" win big points.

How well will Djokovic return Alcaraz's serve?

Well he will certainly return better than Stephanos that's for sure.

I'm curious how Novak will set about playing Carlos. I doubt there is a shot of Novak's that Carlos can't get too, no matter how precise Novak is. And Carlos has so much to throw at Novak to keep him guessing and off balance. Roger was the same of course and Novak dealt with that quite successfully most of the time...but Carlos is even more explosive...more unpredictable. Dare I say it...in a certain sense Carlos has a little more than Roger to chuck at Novak.

That said, no player senses a threat and steps up to the plate as well as Novak. He's exceptional like that.

So, yes, I am curious how Novak will approach the match. I haven't looked forward to a match like this for a long time. Let's hope it lives up to itself.

[stroke]

Alex earns it in a hard fought win over Etcheverry before another very enthusiastic crowd. Ruud vs Rune on tap. Ruud the slight favorite.

[jimlosaltos]

Alcaraz is the solid favorite vs Novak with an implied probability of winning at 66.6%.

Makes sense -- on form, with Djoko's health "questions". And yet I'd be nervous betting money against someone who this late in his career, still seems to "just" win big points.

How well will Djokovic return Alcaraz's serve?

[stroke]

Alcaraz is the solid favorite vs Novak with an implied probability of winning at 66.6%.

[stroke]

For those here that have ridiculed the behavior of the French open fans ... somehow they omitted the term "Soccer Hooligans"

AFP: "Branded "embarrassing", "disrespectful" and even "feral", French Open fans are under fire for the kind of boisterous behaviour usually associated with the diehard ultras of nearby football giants Paris Saint-Germain.

""The crowd was just so great that I had to let it fire me up. They cheered so well for me, I wanted to make sure I won. Thanks guys," the American Frtiz said sarcastically.

Australian doubles player Arina Rodionova asked on Twitter: "Is it me or French crowd is especially feral this year? Normally there is at least a little bit of logic behind the booing... this year they just woke up and chose violence!"

https://sports.yahoo.com/embarrassin...114510881.html

See WTA, just enjoy.

[jimlosaltos]

For those here that have ridiculed the behavior of the French open fans ... somehow they omitted the term "Soccer Hooligans"

AFP: "Branded "embarrassing", "disrespectful" and even "feral", French Open fans are under fire for the kind of boisterous behaviour usually associated with the diehard ultras of nearby football giants Paris Saint-Germain.

""The crowd was just so great that I had to let it fire me up. They cheered so well for me, I wanted to make sure I won. Thanks guys," the American Frtiz said sarcastically.

Australian doubles player Arina Rodionova asked on Twitter: "Is it me or French crowd is especially feral this year? Normally there is at least a little bit of logic behind the booing... this year they just woke up and chose violence!"

https://sports.yahoo.com/embarrassing-feral-disrespectful-french-open-114510881.html

[stotty]

Stotty, maybe watch the WTA, the Welfare Tennis Association, ha.

Good idea.

It's getting embarrassing now. I'm off to take the dog out. It's a slow business as he's 11 years old and not the spritely dog he once was. If a miracle happens I'll sign back in. Other than that I will be back for Novak v Carlos.