2020 Australian Open...ATP 2000...Melbourne, Australia

[don_budge]

Nadal and Theim in a first set tie-break. I just got here for a couple of points...4-2 Theim. But it almost appears that Theim is wearing on him. I have noticed that Theim does this to his opponents with his constant barrage.

[stroke]

Great couple of wins for Alex against 2 quality contenders. He was out of sorts completely with his serve problems at the ATP Cup and appears to have sorted it out and regained his confidence with his groundstrokes, which can be overpowering.

[don_budge]

Match of the Day...Roger Federer vs. Tennys Sandgren

The match started at 5 AM here in Sweden and by the time I got to the set it was two sets to one to Sandgren. I heard via the announcers that Roger was having some sort of physical issues and by the score and the attitudes of the announcers the best that I could have said at the moment was that Roger was a hero for playing it out. It didn't seem as if he had a snowball's chance in Australia of pulling this one out.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AxOdP_B7SQ4

So I ate breakfast and came back. Hmmm...very interesting. Roger is hanging on in the fourth set. I went out and cleaned the stable and when I came back I expected it to be all over. But to my surprise the announcers were still calling the match and luckily for me I got there for the beginning of the tie-break. What a tie-break it was. It looked as if it was all over for Roger once again as they held serve to 3-3 but Sandgren broke a Federer serve and then held two of his own to take him to 6-3...triple match point. On the first one Roger missed the first serve and then Sandgren clipped the tape after a nineteen shot rally. Roger hits a service winner to save the second...the fifth match point save of the match. Sandgren served the third match point of the breaker to the Federer forehand which he blocked in similar fashion that he did on the John Millman last point of the match...right in the middle of the court. Tennys advances to the net with a somewhat tentative topspin forehand to the Federer backhand and Roger hits a high percentage shot crosscourt that Sandgren volleys to the Federer backhand again. Now this is the most important shot of the whole match as the volley is neither deep or penetrating...Federer plays down the line and catches Sandgren out of position. He manages a forehand volley but it is right to Roger and he makes the split second decision to take it in the air with a swinging top spin forehand volley to save the third match point.

At 6-6 Sandgren hits a service winner for 6-7 Federer to serve. He misses the first serve but he makes the second to begin a rally where they trade 18 straight topspin shots before Roger slices a backhand short inside the service line. Now Tennys has to make a split second decision of his own...should he retreat after hitting the short or approach to the net...he decides to approach and nets the backhand. Big first serve and Federer smashes for his first set point. Ace for Tennys...8-8. Federer wins another longish rally for his second set point...9-8. Sandgren in control of the point at the net...he clips the baseline. Federer looks to the umpire for the call but there is none. He lobs high over Sandgren's head and Tennys retreats behind the baseline to smash...long.

I watched the first three games of the fifth. Sandgren had lost his belief that he could win this match and Federer had an iron grip on it. I walked away. Took the dogs for a walk. When I got back the jury was in...an incredible escape. Roger lives to play another day. Novak Djokovic next. The Invincible Novak I might add. He looked impenetrable against the big Canadian lug...Milos Raonic. He made Milos look like an oaf and that was some doing seeing as nobody else had any answers for the big serving Raonic. So Roger has his hands full. Again. Who knows? He used up two shots in the game of Russian Roulette so as klacr says...he is playing with house money. Put an empty chamber in that gun...Nicky!

[klacr]

Federer does his best Houdini. Amazing how he manages. No panic shown in his emotions. Just calmness and confidence. Federer admitted he was lucky and considering he should have lost twice in this tournament, he has to feel like playing with house money.

Kyle LaCroix USPTA
Delray Beach
SETS Consulting

[stroke]

Certainly if someone had put a lot of money on Fed, they may have had some kind of breakdown before celebrating the win

[don_budge]

Fed is a massive favorite. One can put $1200 on Fed and win $100 if he wins.

There were a couple of points there in the match when Sandgren looked like a good bet. About seven of them.

[don_budge]

Interesting match from Roger Federer today. To say the least. An understatement. But there you go. Three one handed backhands in the quarters and it is just too bad Stefanos is another year away from developing more potential. It could have been four. But more later. First things first. I have my priorities you know. Number one is you know who. Gym time. Ugh!

[stroke]

Fed is a massive favorite. One can put $1200 on Fed and win $100 if he wins.

[stroke]

You pretty much nailed it. His conditioning is not all in. A lot of his errors were a break down in his form, looking tired. I doubt he will ever address this. To be a very top player, you have to take conditioning off the table. It is a given. Nadal for the match 64 winners, 27 errors. Those are brutal numbers from Nadal. Thiem and Wawrinka are all in with their conditioning. But we all know what they will be seeing from Nadal. They are not favored. They are clearly a worse match up vs Nadal than Nick. Nadal is looking very strong out there. Unlucky(for the other players) 13 on tap at FO.

[don_budge]

The Curious Case of Nick Kyrgios...The Forehand and The Conditioning

Nick gave it his all. Or so he thinks. But much of the battle is in the preparation and his preparation falls woefully short against a player like Rafael Nadal who isn't going to go away just because you ask him to. Or because you are imitating some of his obnoxious gamesmanship.

So many times Nick Kyrgios advanced to the net only to see Nadal reverse the advantage because the approach shots were just too damn short with too much spin. The approach shots were landing at the service line or just beyond laden with heavy topspin which only served to place the ball right in the wheelhouse of Nadal. Secondly...the five set match against the Russian the other night took the legs out from Nick and I would bet that Kyrgios was short on his conditioning that best of five sets is all about. Federer was in a similar predicament the other day but luckily for him he was facing Marton Fucsovics and not Nadal. He managed to get his legs back under him after a tentative first set.

Even on backcourt exchanges Kyrgios was landing the ball way to short. There has been discussion on the strength of his grip...how far towards western it is. This sort of grip is not conducive to making good approaches nor is a good way to achieve good depth by flattening the ball out particularly when a player is getting tired or when he is trying to get something extra on the ball.

As much as I wanted to see him beat Nadal there wasn't much hope after he lost that tie-breaker. What was up with that attempt at an ace on a second serve at 6 all in the breaker. A very poor decision at best. Stupid at worst. But Nick was getting tired and he was only on fumes and the inspiration of the pro Aussie crowd at that point. A desperate measure when a calculated decision was needed. Nick just could not get enough flatness on the ball to move Nadal over from his perch on the backhand side of the court. Nick could not hurt him the way Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer have figured out. Nadal looks pretty good to the finals now unless Wawrinka can figure out a way to neutralise the forehand. Stan looked really solid in certain stretches and he was strong going down the last stretch. He's going to need it and he might have something left in the bag for Nadal.

I would assess Nick's weakness to be an over reliance on topspin and on his serve ironically. By not putting enough pressure on the opponents serve he put that much more on his own.

[stroke]

Another reminder that no players coming up are as good as the 3 great ones.

[stroke]

Nadal wins 3rd set tiebreaker 8-6. It was the best set of tennis I think I have seen from Nick. And Nick knows he gave it his all and did not get it. As db might say, now Nick has to deal with knowing that and get past it. A very tough ask for Nick.

[stroke]

Quite the 3rd set. Nick is totally engaged and playing well enough to get some uncharacteristic errors from Nadal. Nadal of course does not look discouraged.

[stroke]

Nick wins 2nd set and he deserved it. He served great and stayed engaged in rallies. Long way to go. Quite the test here for Nick. Nadal looks strong to me. None of the looking a bit older to me going on right now. He looks like the favorite for the FO, which he is.

[don_budge]

Nadal wins 1st set. Nick up a break in 2nd, and he is competing on all points, including his return games. As we all know, he has the game to do it on this stage. We will see.

He FOLLOWED THROUGH on his break of serve and there is an absence of the "too cool for school". Nose to the grindstone. He needs to keep it there as Nadal is going to steel himself for the ensuing battle. Interestingly though...Kyrgios is actually beating him. Tactically speaking. Let's see now.