How Roger Federer Won the US Open

What did the statistics say beyond the obvious?

It seemed like a stretch and it didn’t happen, Federer versus Nadal in a third Slam final in a row in 2006. We tracked the numbers in their first two matches on clay and on grass, and saw how some relatively small differences translated into opposite outcomes at the French and at Wimbledon. (Click Here.) So that’s why I would have been so interested to chart a third match on hard courts.

But since it was the Open final and I’d charted Roger in the last 2 Slam finals, I decided to see what the stats might show about Federer versus Andy Roddick.

And what did they show? Well, they showed that sometimes you don’t need statistics to see the differences in who wins a given match between some players. But the statistics do make what seemed obvious a little more obvious, and maybe add some additional depth of understanding to what happened that day in New York City.

What happens when 80% of Roddick’s serves come back?

For example, let’s take the first set, a 6-1 romp for Federer. Andy Roddick serves 65% and gets broken 3 times. He wins only…