The Aggressive Margin

If a tennis player wants to gain a real understanding of his wins and loses in competitive match play, he
needs to understand how he wins and loses points from a quantitative, or statistical perspective.

In the first article in this series, we explained the critical role of the forced error in understanding
match statistics. This article introduces another key statistic, the “Aggressive Margin.”

Let’s see what the Aggressive Margin is and what it tells us about the classic Sampras/Agassi confrontation
at the 2001 U.S. Open. Then we’ll compare that to the margin in some of their other classic match ups over the years. In a
future article, we’ll see how it illuminates who wins and loses at other levels of play.

The Aggressive Margin was first developed decades ago by the father of modern tennis statistics, Bill
Jacobsen. It’s a composite statistic that combines how a player wins and loses all points into a single index. Understanding
this one key number allows any player to see exactly what happened in a given match, and how.

Basically all tennis points end in one of three ways: winners, unforced errors, or forced errors. The Aggressive Margin puts all three together into…