The Favorite and the Underdog: Understanding Match Dynamics

The Favorite and the Underdog: what were the match dynamics?

In the quarterfinals of the 2008 U.S. Open the third seed Novak Djokovic defeated the eighth seed Andy Roddick in four sets.  Yes, the big “story” of the Open was obviously Roger Federer.  But for the average player this match was a virtual archetype when it comes to understanding the dynamics of match play, and especially what it means to be the favorite or the underdog in pressure situations.

Once we understand these dynamics, we can see how players at all levels can apply them and have a significant impact on their own match outcomes. By studying the forces at work here, we can gain an understanding of some of the things that happen in matches that may seem surprising—things that aren’t in fact so surprising to experienced observers. 

So what happened in that quarterfinal Thursday night match in New York?  For starters the favorite, Djokovic won, and the underdog, Roddick, lost, although it appeared Andy had a real chance in the fourth set.

Djokovic got off to a big lead, relying on his superior baseline proficiency, his movement and his tenacity, taking the first two sets, 6-2, 6-3.  Roddick…