What story did the numbers tell about the outcome of this match? So after about 7 and a half hours, Roger and Rafa started the decisive fifth set in the 2008 Wimbledon final. At that point, the total number of points won by both players was exactly even: 151 points each. They say that statistics tell the story, but which statistics and what story? No one knew at that point that the 5th set would go 9-7. Or that they would play over a hundred tense and sometimes brilliant points. We know Rafa won, but how close was it really in that fifth set? In 16 games, Nadal won 58 points and Roger won 53. That's a 5 point difference. So about every 3 games in that fifth set, Rafa won one more point than Roger. One more point every 3 games. That was the difference. They say that "big points" determine matches. And it's hard to argue that because we have all seen dramatic turning points and how a tight match can shift on one shot. But what determines who wins the big points? Unforced errors--yes, but what else determined this match? In virtually every match I've ever charted...
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