Tracking Data and Serve Strategy: Part 2

Players generally have lower risk tolerance when they are backed into tight situations. High pressure points in a match can rattle a player’s nerves and effect their serve decisions. And it is within these high-pressure situations where a player turns to their most comfortable and trustworthy tennis weapons. In other words, they become more predictable. To investigate, let’s see how Roger Federer approached his pressure points at Roland Garros. We formally derived match pressure using match score and applying some fancy math equations. Key points like break points and points approaching break (eg: 15-30) were assigned high match pressure while other less important points like 0-0 or 15-0 were assigned low match pressure. In our study, Federer was more predictable on high pressure points. This meant more T serves in the Deuce court and more Wide/Body serves in the Ad. He was less predictable on low pressure points. Interestingly, all opponents in the study’s Federer matches were right-handed. Federer’s serve strategy on these high pressure points was to pound the backhand side. Clearly a lot of factors influence a player’s serve direction decisions. But from a scouting perspective, it is valuable to describe a player’s serve tendencies under specific match…