Cincinatti ATP 1000

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https://www.tennis.com/news/videos/andy-roddick-novak-djokovic-record-gael-monfils-can-almost-legally-drink-in-usa

[stotty]

https://www.tennis.com/news/videos/a...y-drink-in-usa

It's barely even a rivalry when you think about it as Gael has never won an ATP match against Novak. Gael might as well go on with a white flag. I will say one thing though...the kid can move and holds the record for the best get I have ever seen: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gtuf12Uw1dk&t=46s

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Purcell is quite the all court tennis player out her extending Alcaraz into the 3rd set. A very nice all court game. Great hands. His volley technique is beautiful. Reminds me of the great Pat Cash.

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It's barely even a rivalry when you think about it as Gael has never won an ATP match against Novak. Gael might as well go on with a white flag. I will say one thing though...the kid can move and holds the record for the best get I have ever seen: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gtuf12Uw1dk&t=46s

It is about as far from a "rivalry" as it gets ha.

[don_budge]

Novak a big favorite of course vs Taylor with an implied winning percentage of about 81%. Not much better betting odds for Taylor than 0-19 Monfils had. I would actually take Taylor in this match as a bettor. He has had good play as of late and he has true self belief, unlike Gael. Furthermore, I am not at all certain if this match is close, Novak will be in the mood to go all in, into his inimitable clinical lock down mode. He has 38 Masters 1000 titles thus far, in addition to the never to be seen again record of winning all of them twice. Certainly this match means pretty much nothing to Novak at this point. For Taylor and Morgan, the significance of this match could not be in starker contrast. Taylor is in his absolute prime, he has the game, we will see.

I disagree...this match meant quite a lot to Novak in hindsight and I'm quite surprised you missed the point. Novak needed this match to confirm to himself he has reached a certain level of consistency in his performance. Afterall we all know that the mantra of a tennis player is "preparation...preparation...preparation". Novak put enough pressure on himself to extend his combined winning Head to Head against "The Amazing Mr. Monfils" and "Taylor and Company" to comfy 26-0. Lopsided much? He's made a career of lockdown against Monfils/Fritz. Now the question becomes one of Djokovic versus Zverev. Novak owns a 7-4 advantage against Zverev Head to Head. Does he really need this match? Because if he wins he almost assures himself a rematch against his young nemesis...Alcarez. Novak can legitimately lose against Zverev and get himself another period of acclimating to a hostile United States of America where he has been banned for almost two years. Maybe do a little vacationing with the family while working on his fitness and other preparatory items on his bucket list leading up to the U. S. Open. There he must be prepared to work himself into the tournament on a match by match basis which he will make certain he is capable by measuring his steps leading up to it.

He could bow out "valiantly" against the "Prince Valiant" cropped Zverev and let Alcarez go on chasing his ATP 1000's records which by the time Carlos reaches Novak will certainly not even care a bit. He'll be nearly 60 years old. But never mind...the bottom line is Novak "certainly this match means pretty much nothing to Novak at this point". The last thing he needs right now is a rematch with Senor Skunk Jr. Nadal Lite. Better to wait and prepare for a rematch in the coliseum in New York where there will be all kinds of pressure of a different kind.

Interesting that Carlos Alcarez looks to be somewhat vulnerable against opponents who are willing to push the envelope to the net. Both Tommy Paul and "Mad Max" Purcell looked to take their chances on a do or die net approach than opt for the strangulation on the baseline. Intelligent tennis and it requires tools. Tools today that are far to uncommon and nearly extinct on the ATP tour. Someone should have tried this on the grass at Wimbledon but I cannot remember if there was an opponent with the prerequisite tool kit. Too bad the "Big Three" is missing in action. Know what I mean?

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Ha I do miss a lot of points, and a lot of picks. I think in hindsight I should have picked Novak to win. I am not sure I am going to pick a winner on the Novak Zverev match. I am just not feeling good about myself.

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Novak is down to a 78% implied probability of winning vs Zverev. Maybe that 39th Masters 1000 title is important to him.

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I am feeling a bit better about myself and things, after my Taylor pick. I may pick the Novak Zverev winner, and I may not. Just don't know yet.

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Hubie up 5-2 1st set. Hubie to me the most interesting of all the 6'4" to 6'6" players out there now. His serve is super good, totality of serve 1st and 2nd, maybe only behind Raonic and Kyrgios in this group. Hubie does everything else better than Raonic. Nick of course a different situation, he does it all but is just not mentally or physically at a competitive ATP mental and physical state. Carlos is just a physical stud for his age, probably on 2nd to Nadal at that age. Like Nadal, he has to just out work his opponents physically with his gifts, a tough ask, but as Nadal showed, certainly doable.

[stotty]

Hubie up 5-2 1st set. Hubie to me the most interesting of all the 6'4" to 6'6" players out there now. His serve is super good, totality of serve 1st and 2nd, maybe only behind Raonic and Kyrgios in this group. Hubie does everything else better than Raonic. Nick of course a different situation, he does it all but is just not mentally or physically at a competitive ATP mental and physical state. Carlos is just a physical stud for his age, probably on 2nd to Nadal at that age. Like Nadal, he has to just out work his opponents physically with his gifts, a tough ask, but as Nadal showed, certainly doable.

Yes a great serve. The best serving I have ever seen was Hurkacz v Novak at Wimbledon this year. Hurkacz serving bullets on first and second serves and getting up to 80% and 90% first serves in at in some of those sets....still lost though.

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Yes a great serve. The best serving I have ever seen was Hurkacz v Novak at Wimbledon this year. Hurkacz serving bullets on first and second serves and getting up to 80% and 90% first serves in at in some of those sets....still lost though.

That is an example of why they are the 3 greatest ever

[don_budge]

There were more than two interesting results...but I guess that is why I am a self declared performance analyst. I don't analyze just tennis by the way. Performance in general. It could be an old dog. Or even the way my wife does the dishes.

The "Amazing Mr. Monfils" win is somewhat predictable. Monfils appears to be in very, very good form. Besides, he had a prior win over de Minaur. de Minaur...do I capitalize the "d" if it is at the beginning of the sentence. Where is bottle when you need him? de Minaur had just lost in the finals on Sunday and then had a three setter to kick off Cincinnati. He was toast most likely. Look for more inconsistency from Tsitsipas. He is in love...not in his right mind. Plus there is turmoil in the camp. DaddyO is gone. Most likely something about the girlfriend. The new coach is an untested entity. I'm not so sure about Tsitsipas going forwards. He seems to be rather enamored with himself. Probably spends more time looking the mirror these days and he loves what he sees. But the game has suffered. When he first hit the tour he was a pretty tough competitor. Now he seems to be more vulnerable with the big target between his shoulder blades. So I don't find his results very compelling at all. He just doesn't interest me like he could have...potentially speaking. I'm really tired of that hitch in his serve.

The fact that both Sinner and de Minaur lost early in this tournament is somewhat telling as well. These new kids just aren't as tough as they used to make them. It seems to me that they are young and should be able to bounce back from week to week. But so many recently have gone this same route. Big results one week then an early exit the next. Here are three more losers to contemplate...Ruud, Rublev and Rune. All losers to lesser ranked players early in the tournament. Could it be that they are beginning to measure there steps to the U. S. Open? Again...all young guys. Should not have to pace themselves. But all losers. Ruud in particular has been struggling. Rune is showing signs of going down the same route. Rublev...not so sure about him. Interesting results. Or not. While I am at it, I have to mention Felix Auger-Aliassime. It is as if he has disappeared. So either it is injury or it is expectations. Lack of consistency. Once upon a time they were the next and the next thing you know...palookaville. I could have been a contender???

Going forwards...Stan Wawrinka may have a better than even chance against Max Purcell. Purcell looked to be doing a bit of serving and volleying when I briefly dropped in on his "Ruud" match. "The Amazing Mr. Monfils" suddenly morphs into "Nobody beats me 19 times in a row" against Novax Djokovic. Mackenzie McDonald and the crafty French left...Adriano Mannarino. Tommy once again up against the latest and the greatest...Carlito Alcarez. So many somewhat interesting matches but not a single one worth watching. Perhaps Monfils and Djokovic until Novak starts to deliver the haymakers. Not one single player to catch the imagination of the tennis base week in and week out. When Roger Federer was playing the whole draw sheet became interesting as one looked to project out potential opponents for the Roger versus Anybody show.

For now the "Match of the Day" is up for grabs. It's like an eight way tie.

The real problem in the post Roger Federer era of tennis is the lengths one must go through to drum up some kind of legitimate interest in a game where there is very little legitimate interest in the first place. Very soon it will only be the betting lines that keep it interesting. Much like that episode in Seinfeld where Kramer is betting on incoming flights with some Texan oil tycoon and Newman comes to Kramer's interest with David Berkowitz's old postal bag. That is where we are at.

So in keeping with that line of logic we are faced with the dilemma of Novak Djokovic...to remain or not in the Cincinnati tennis tournament. He has elected to play. He beat Alexander Zverev in yesterday's semifinal. So as a performance analyst we see this in terms of different levels and different perspectives. Novak has won four consecutive matches in straight sets. This match against Zverev is the first where he has been somewhat pushed. It is hard to tell with Novak...he can give you that limp leg and then before you know it he is zooming towards the goal line and spiking it in the end zone. Carlos Alcarez, on the other hand, has been pushed to three sets by four consecutive opponents. Four opponents who have a cumulative ranking of 168 or an average of 42. Taking into consideration that Carlos is currently the number one ranked player in the world it is safe to say that he is underperforming in this tournament. When Novak took the court he knows all of this and proceeds to take Zverev in straight sets. He got right down to business. No muss...no fuss. Booking a slot in the finals against Alcarez.

In the Wimbledon final, the entire match boiled down to one thing all things being equal. The one things was the legs. Novak at 36 has been feeling this strange sensation for a couple of years now that his legs are not there all the time like they used to. He was a sitting duck there in the fifth set and Carlos sealed his fate by a couple of extraordinarily long Djokovic service games. Nothing depletes you like having to defend your own serve for a game that takes a half an hour. No exaggeration. Not mentioned in any article that I read. Not in any statistics. That was the deciding blow to Novak's hopes. He had his legs taken out from under him. He was wobbling towards the finish line as Carlos was driving match point down his throat. So here in Cincinnati we have a situation where Carlos has been extended four days in a row and Novak has had a rather routine, ho hum path to the finals and thus to the first rematch since their Wimbledon drama. Don't forget the French Open match either. Perhaps this surface resembles the French clay more than the Wimbledon grass. What does it mean? I want to give the edge to Novak...if he is all in. If I was a gambler. Because maybe this is what this is all coming down to. The bet.

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/

All speculation. Artfully so. But just thinking outside the box and feeling good about myself per usual. Taking information and disseminating it. Discernment. As a lone wolf of course. It looks like the "Big Three" is down to the "Big One and a Half". Hopefully the other one and a half are doing well and fine. Just remember...you started it. This is what it all came down to...in the post Roger Federer era of tennis. Post bottle as well. Which is another interesting angle to this story line. bottle and his minion.

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Novak is the favorite with an implied probability of winning at about 62%.

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Yes ol bottle, turning back the clock. Definitely a bit of a lone wolf. I remember he completely lost it one time when I suggested to another poster not to respond to bottle's personal thread musings, as "it only makes it worse". I would not say a sense of humor was maybe his strong suit.

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This final really needs no promo, as it is clearly about as interesting as it gets for a non Major. Novak, quantitatively to me the best player ever, and the best player ever at age 36, looking to see how long he can remain the best player in the world. Alcaraz thank goodness has stepped forward to make things interesting. Obviously this match is way more significant to Carlos than Novak, not even remotely close in that regard, as far as the ATP pecking order goes. Some poster pointed out the beyond obvious, that Carlos has had to work much harder to get to this final. That is true. Thanks for that. But Carlos has that Spanish work ethic, the whole embracing the pain thing, and he is ready to compete at his best in this match. Very compelling final here on tap.