Wimbledon

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https://open.substack.com/pub/hughclarke/p/alcaraz-x-sinner-wimbledon-final?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=1t7zzc

[stroke]

https://www.oddschecker.com/us/tennis

Odds have shifted a bit. Sinner now the very slight favorite

[stotty]

The oddsmakers were right. What made them flip?

I was worried Sinner might be dissected after the first set. He was struggling to move a little and looked constantly pressurised. He was serving in straight lines and Carlos returned everything. Things really turned around after Carlos lapsed at the start of the second set. Sinner started to serve more precisely and his groundies got heavier and heavier. It was a great win and thoroughly deserved.

[stroke]

To me on the mainstream Major telecasts, they are so dumb downed there is not hardly any interesting thing said , but in this instance, there was. Patrick McEnroe pointed out that Carlos, at some point early in the 4th set, in a bit of frustration, spontaneously said to his camp that he could not deal with the pace of shot coming from Jannick. Patrick pointed out(astutely to me) that he has never seen that reaction from Carlos before. To me, very telling moment.

[jimlosaltos]

The oddsmakers were right. What made them flip?

I was worried Sinner might be dissected after the first set. He was struggling to move a little and looked constantly pressurised. He was serving in straight lines and Carlos returned everything. Things really turned around after Carlos lapsed at the start of the second set. Sinner started to serve more precisely and his groundies got heavier and heavier. It was a great win and thoroughly deserved.

Match is yet more proof of how close things are at the top levels of pro tennis.

For a while, it started as if Carlos would win his third "Channel Slam", now if Sinner had converted one ( just 1) of his match points at Roland Garros, he'd be going for a "True" Calendar Slam at the US Open.

Or consider this crude graphic. Alcaraz has won 3 matches where he was down, twice down match points, another one swing from going down 2 sets to love.

• Rudd had match point against Alcaraz in their 2024 ATP Finals opening round
• Djokovic had a point to be up 2 sets to love against Alcaraz in their Wimbledon final in 2023
• Sinner, of course, had match point(S) at Roland Garros.

Like his idol, Fed, Caspar can play Houdini.

filedata/fetch?id=107922&d=1752444600&type=thumb

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[jimlosaltos]

To me on the mainstream Major telecasts, they are so dumb downed there is not hardly any interesting thing said , but in this instance, there was. Patrick McEnroe pointed out that Carlos, at some point early in the 4th set, in a bit of frustration, spontaneously said to his camp that he could not deal with the pace of shot coming from Jannick. Patrick pointed out(astutely to me) that he has never seen that reaction from Carlos before. To me, very telling moment.

I think Fowler was the one that got the translation, probably in his ear mike from a producer, of what Carlos was yelling at this camp. Regardless ...

Through out the tournament, Carlos was coming to the net. But Sinner was returning too well, or jumping on short returns when it was his turn to serve.
Look at this change.

Serve and Volley Points in the tournament coming in to the final:

Sinner won 1/2 (50%)
Alcaraz won 61/77 (79%)

Net Points Today

Sinner won 30/40 at the net
Carlos 17/23 ... perhaps 3 of those were S&V ?

I know S&V and "at the net" aren't the same but those are the stats I could find.
Sinner took the net away -- with the quality of his return, the placement of his own serve, and by getting there first.

Look at the placement of Sinner's first serve in the third set. All but 1 serve within 2 feet of a line, if not on a line. 1 of 2

filedata/fetch?id=107925&d=1752445876&type=thumb

And how his serve got more effective. 2 of 2

filedata/fetch?id=107924&d=1752445876&type=thumb

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[stroke]

I think Fowler was the one that got the translation, probably in his ear mike from a producer, of what Carlos was yelling at this camp. Regardless ...

Through out the tournament, Carlos was coming to the net. But Sinner was returning too well, or jumping on short returns when it was his turn to serve.
Look at this change.

Serve and Volley Points in the tournament coming in to the final:

Sinner won 1/2 (50%)
Alcaraz won 61/77 (79%)

Net Points Today

Sinner won 30/40 at the net
Carlos 17/23 ... perhaps 3 of those were S&V ?

I know S&V and "at the net" aren't the same but those are the stats I could find.
Sinner took the net away -- with the quality of his return, the placement of his own serve, and by getting there first.

Look at the placement of Sinner's first serve in the third set. All but 1 serve within 2 feet of a line, if not on a line. 1 of 2

filedata/fetch?id=107925&d=1752445876&type=thumb

And how his serve got more effective. 2 of 2

filedata/fetch?id=107924&d=1752445876&type=thumb

#

Good clarification there. Fowler has definitely grown into the tennis commentator job

[don_budge]

For a fact...the stats on net play are grossly misleading. A prime example of the meaninglessness of statistics in tennis. Attempting to decipher quantitatively what is transpiring qualitatively. A number of times Alcaraz would get up 40-love on his serve and traipse into the net and get lambasted in the process. I was impressed at the audience live at the final...impressed at how dumbed down they were. The same can be said for the commentatoes. The most boring Wimbledon final ever. That's qualitative. Not particularly well played. The women's final...don't ask.

Fifty years ago if someone told you that the wear on the court would be solely behind the baseline in 2025, you would have looked at them as if they were out of their mind. You don't need any statistics to understand that net play has very little bearing on the outcome of any of the matches there. The net play as it panned out was very inconsistent. Some very easy volleys were just dumped into the net. A far cry from the artistry of yesteryear. Devolution.

Commentary on the state of the sport is dumbed down. You can't bite the hand that feeds you. I don't have a dog in this fight. I'm telling it like it is. This isn't tennis. It's fake. I think the forum has lost a lot of brain power. The guys that used to frequent this joint had a lot more tennis IQ. Stats and bookies. It's a shame. Time for a change. The website is going to have to evolve. I have some ideas...but surely nobody will ask. Telling the truth in times of mass deceit is a revolutionary act. George was right. Right down to the year.

[don_budge]

For a fact...the stats on net play are grossly misleading. A prime example of the meaninglessness of statistics in tennis. Attempting to decipher quantitatively what is transpiring qualitatively. A number of times Alcaraz would get up 40-love on his serve and traipse into the net and get lambasted in the process. I was impressed at the audience live at the final...impressed at how dumbed down they were. The same can be said for the commentatoes. The most boring Wimbledon final ever. That's qualitative. Not particularly well played. The women's final...don't ask.

Fifty years ago if someone told you that the wear on the court would be solely behind the baseline in 2025, you would have looked at them as if they were out of their mind. You don't need any statistics to understand that net play has very little bearing on the outcome of any of the matches there. The net play as it panned out was very inconsistent. Some very easy volleys were just dumped into the net. A far cry from the artistry of yesteryear. Devolution.

Commentary on the state of the sport is dumbed down. You can't bite the hand that feeds you. I don't have a dog in this fight. I'm telling it like it is. This isn't tennis. It's fake. I think the forum has lost a lot of brain power. The guys that used to frequent this joint had a lot more tennis IQ. Stats and bookies. It's a shame. Time for a change. The website is going to have to evolve. I have some ideas...but surely nobody will ask. Telling the truth in times of mass deceit is a revolutionary act. George was right. Right down to the year.

It may be that I am talking to myself. That's ok. I'm on to something and it isn't necessarily what the crowd wants to hear. It's like that in life. The voice in the wilderness. Nobody listens...until it is too late.

Case in point. I am watching something on TV that I have never seen before and it is profoundly fascinating. The British Open is this week...what a time to be alive in England. With Wimbledon and the British Open golf tournament there the same week. Anyways...the program being televised is called, "A Day On The Range". I saw it on the menu and thought to myself...this can't be about golf. But sure enough...it is. The program is exactly what it says. They are televising the players practicing and tuning up their swings for the big tournament. The commentators are actually experts and know what the hell they are talking about. Quite the opposite of the current tennis group of lackeys.

One player is practicing with a shot monitor and it gives a number of instant results on any ball struck. This is the "new" in golf training. This instant feedback. Does it help? Everyone seems to be using it. But the commentator made a very interesting comment as he watched the tallies from one Keagan Bradley range shot. He said, "it's not going to take a mathematician to win the Open this year...it is going to take an artist." Quite the astute observation and brilliant at the same time. True aficionados understand what my point is about tennis and this fellow would too. Hands down.

[stroke]

https://open.substack.com/pub/hughclarke/p/alcaraz-vs-sinner-wimbledon-final?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=1t7zzc

[jimlosaltos]

Good clarification there. Fowler has definitely grown into the tennis commentator job

Here's what Google's Ai says for whatever that is worth:

In the 2025 Wimbledon final against Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz was heard saying to his team, "He is playing much better than me". Alcaraz also made a gesture indicating the perceived gap in their performance, pointing to Sinner and placing his hand up high, then pointing to himself and placing his hand down low, .
The original quote in Spanish is: "?l est? jugando mucho mejor que yo. ?Mucho mejor!"

[jimlosaltos]

https://open.substack.com/pub/hughcl...droid&r=1t7zzc

I see why you like Hugh's stuff, stroke. This and the examination of Sinner's running forehand footwork stood out for me.

Sinner's Backhand: There’s only one other guy I can think of who could play with this much ‘strength’ on a back foot two-hander: Rafael Nadal. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that they both had long, sweeping, in-to-out swings that enabled the top hand to get dominant. At this level, tennis is a backswing game. Technique is a lever.
-- Hugh Clarke on Substack.

The dark blue dots are backhands hit at over 75 MPH. The ATP is filled with guys that can hit 100 MPH forehands, while averaging in the 70s, but how many can repeatedly hit 75+ MPH backhands.

The image is uncredited but I presume comes from ESPN.

filedata/fetch?id=107932&d=1752511084&type=thumb

[stroke]

I see why you like Hugh's stuff, stroke. This and the examination of Sinner's running forehand footwork stood out for me.

Sinner's Backhand: There’s only one other guy I can think of who could play with this much ‘strength’ on a back foot two-hander: Rafael Nadal. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that they both had long, sweeping, in-to-out swings that enabled the top hand to get dominant. At this level, tennis is a backswing game. Technique is a lever.
-- Hugh Clarke on Substack.

The dark blue dots are backhands hit at over 75 MPH. The ATP is filled with guys that can hit 100 MPH forehands, while averaging in the 70s, but how many can repeatedly hit 75+ MPH backhands.

The image is uncredited but I presume comes from ESPN.

filedata/fetch?id=107932&d=1752511084&type=thumb

Yes, to me, Hugh is the best write ups I have seen on ATP tennis, but that video instruction piece by the Fault Tolerant Tennis Instruction Site(Johnny) on the FO Final was very close. Here is the link if interested. https://youtu.be/w1FakobNq1Q?si=sP0p6tHeaikACppc

[jimlosaltos]

Yes, to me, Hugh is the best write ups I have seen on ATP tennis, but that video instruction piece by the Fault Tolerant Tennis Instruction Site(Johnny) on the FO Final was very close. Here is the link if interested. https://youtu.be/w1FakobNq1Q?si=sP0p6tHeaikACppc

Thanks. I like their stuff, will check. Also this might interest or amuse.

Jannik Sinner wins Wimbledon—and a bet that might keep coach Darren Cahill around

"We had a bet before the final. He said: ‘If you win tomorrow, you can decide whether or not I stay,'" Sinner recounted. "Now the choice is mine. I've always looked for a person who is honest, a person who gives me a lot, not necessarily only on the tennis court, but (about) how to live."

Sinner went on to say that he would love to have Cahill stick around. Sinner also did acknowledge that if Cahill did continue to work alongside co-coach Simone Vagnozzi, Cahill probably would not travel on tour as much as he does currently.

https://share.google/SbJzUiUIIxYdXXBH0

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Cahill seems like a perfect fit for Sinner. Seems to have the same thoughtful attitude, laid back, knows his stuff.