Whassup with Federer?

[brett701]

I think the general line of thought is: Mono lead to sub par performances which lead to unexpected losses which lead to a loss in confidence which lead to other player's belief that they can beat him.

Hopefully it doesn't turn into a Coria-like nightmare, but I do know that, at least in the near future, players are going to be more confident against Federer. They are going to say "If Mardy Fish and Andy Murray can beat Federer in straight sets, then I definitely have a shot." Before, players pretty much accepted defeat before the start of the match. That psychological edge is not there anymore.

The whole thing is, at least for me, sad. Roger should not be losing to Mardy Fish in straight sets, especially serving at 40% first serves.

i agree 100%.

Have you ever heard of the guy that ran a mile in less than 4 minutes? Well the story goes, that it has never been done, but he knew that he could and he had a belief that he could do this. And within that same year, nearly 1000 other people broke the record in the same year because they believed it was possible. I think this is clashing with his sickness, and weakened mental state.

[CraigC]

Thoughts on Fed

I sat and watched that match live and I'm thinking either Roger was abducted or there are stranger things at play. His serves were averaging bout 112 and his groundies were half the pace of his usual game. Either the illness is still there, he was simply having a very bad day, or....and I don't buy this but it is possible:
Roger is chasing the "weeks at number one" record and realized that Rafa lost in the semis after winning the event last year. This means Roger gained points this week while Rafa lost some. Now, Roger has had a terrible "08 but kept his points lead. Consequently, if he has a decent year and ends up number one, he can start "09 great and keep the ranking through the entire year. Like I said, it's a bit of a crazy theory, but who knows what one will do when chasing history.

[jeffreycounts]

Federer's inabilility to impose his game on Fish at Indian Wells was so incredibly at odds with what we've seen from him over a number of years that it strikes me as worth commenting on. And I'd love to hear other educated thoughts on the subject.

Fish handled Fed's serve (esp. the 2nd serve) like it was a floating bon bon. And given Fish's abysmal 1st serve % (well under 50%), Fed's inability to dictate play on Fish's 2nd serve was stunning...esp. when you consider how handily Fed deals w/ Roddick's serve (both 1st and 2nd) on both hard courts and grass.

The only thing I can see re-watching tape, is that maybe Fed doesn't really have his legs or his mind match sharp.

Granted, Fish played incredibly well, but Fed's complete lack of presence (or fight) is worth trying to break down and understand.

Thoughts?

AO

I think the general line of thought is: Mono lead to sub par performances which lead to unexpected losses which lead to a loss in confidence which lead to other player's belief that they can beat him.

Hopefully it doesn't turn into a Coria-like nightmare, but I do know that, at least in the near future, players are going to be more confident against Federer. They are going to say "If Mardy Fish and Andy Murray can beat Federer in straight sets, then I definitely have a shot." Before, players pretty much accepted defeat before the start of the match. That psychological edge is not there anymore.

The whole thing is, at least for me, sad. Roger should not be losing to Mardy Fish in straight sets, especially serving at 40% first serves.

[oliensis]

Federer's inabilility to impose his game on Fish at Indian Wells was so incredibly at odds with what we've seen from him over a number of years that it strikes me as worth commenting on. And I'd love to hear other educated thoughts on the subject.

Fish handled Fed's serve (esp. the 2nd serve) like it was a floating bon bon. And given Fish's abysmal 1st serve % (well under 50%), Fed's inability to dictate play on Fish's 2nd serve was stunning...esp. when you consider how handily Fed deals w/ Roddick's serve (both 1st and 2nd) on both hard courts and grass.

The only thing I can see re-watching tape, is that maybe Fed doesn't really have his legs or his mind match sharp.

Granted, Fish played incredibly well, but Fed's complete lack of presence (or fight) is worth trying to break down and understand.

Thoughts?

AO