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    My secretary passed this to me today. It was in my mailbox.

    John Yandell
    The Next Great Champion

    Will it be Grigor Dimitrov? Milos Raonic? How about Marin Cilic now that he was won the U.S. Open? Or maybe Kei Niskakori? The Aussie Open is in full swing, so maybe we are gonna see it happen: the emergence of the next dominant men’s player.

    All those guys have the potential to win Grand Slam titles. Cilic did, obviously, and so for that matter did Juan Martin Del Potro. And maybe they will win, or win more.

    But what about the next guy who can win or 3 or 5 or 7 or 14 Grand Slams titles, if such a thing is even still possible? Unlikely it’s any of these players, as great as they all obviously are. Very likely it’s someone not currently in the Top 20.

    Maybe it’s someone like Nick Kyrgios, who is ranked about 50, but got a lot of attention for his huge game and knocking Rafael Nadal out of Wimbledon last year. Or maybe the Austrian Dominic Thiem, who at 40 on the computer is actually ranked higher than Kyrgios.

    When he beat Stan Wawrinka at Madrid last year, he became the first 20 year old to beat a top 3 player since Del Potro beat Nadal and Federer. Personally I would love to see it with all the talk about the supposed death of the one-handed backhand. If you haven’t seen how gorgeous Thiem’s one-hander really is you can check it out on Tennisplayer. (Click here)

    But why none of the other guys who have hovered near the top? That hasn’t been the pattern in the history of pro tennis. Players don’t have some success, get near the top for a few years, and then suddenly rise to dominance. And if Thiem and Kyrgios don’t move radically upward soon, it won’t be them either.

    Players like Dimitrov and Raonic or even Cilic have been losing to players like Federer, Nadal, Djokovic and Andy Murray for a few years. That isn’t the experience that leads to the mentality of a dominant champion.

    The next multiple Slam champion, when he gets close to the top, is going to go all the way to the top. It might be after the Big 4 retires—or not. It might follow some great results and then a few loses to players still above him. But not for long.

    Remember Jo Willie Tsonga’s electric run in the Australian? Or how about Marcos Baghdatis? They never were able to back up the promise of their first big success.

    The players who are going to stay on top get there fast. They may not win the Open at 19 like Pete Sampras, but once they get the first title, they are going to be right there challenging and winning more in the near future.

    Think back to Borg, McEnroe. It was electrifyingly, to see them come out of nowhere convinced they were the best. Federer was in his early 20s but once he started winning, we know the story, and it was the same for Nadal who started even younger—remember, he won the first French he entered. Even Andy Murray and Ivan Lendl were both 4 time Slam final losers and clearly a level ahead of other contenders when they made the final breakthrough.

    So are you going to see the next big name in the Australian in 2015? You might. But probably only if you are watching the early rounds closely—unless of course this is the event that begins the skyrocket.

  • #2
    I categorized these by rankings. This 26, 25, 24 group, I say no. The under 23 group yes, Grigor Dimitrov is talented, however, not a generational talent I do don't think. Nick Kyrgios and Borna Coric? Maybe, they are still young enough if a perfect storm happens.

    26, 25 and 24 (win now, make a breakthrough asap)

    1 5 Nishikori, Kei (JPN) (JPN) 1989
    2 8 Raonic, Milos (CAN) (CAN) 1990
    3 9 Cilic, Marin (CRO) (CRO) 1988
    4 13 Gulbis, Ernests (LAT) Gulbis, Ernests (LAT) 1988
    5 16 Bautista Agut, Roberto (ESP) Bautista Agut, Roberto (ESP) 1988
    6 22 Goffin, David (BEL) Goffin, David (BEL) 1990
    7 23 Dolgopolov, Alexandr (UKR) Dolgopolov, Alexandr (UKR) 1988
    8 34 Klizan, Martin (SVK) Klizan, Martin (SVK) 1989
    9 36 Mannarino, Adrian (FRA) Mannarino, Adrian (FRA) 1988
    10 38 Johnson, Steve (USA) Johnson, Steve (USA) 1989
    11 44 Janowicz, Jerzy (POL) Janowicz, Jerzy (POL) 1990
    12 55 Sousa, Joao (POR) Sousa, Joao (POR) 1989
    13 56 Young, Donald (USA) Young, Donald (USA) 1989
    14 57 Struff, Jan-Lennard (GER) Struff, Jan-Lennard (GER) 1990
    15 60 Pospisil, Vasek (CAN) Pospisil, Vasek (CAN) 1990
    16 61 Ramos-Vinolas, Albert (ESP) Ramos-Vinolas, Albert (ESP) 1988
    17 62 Delbonis, Federico (ARG) Delbonis, Federico (ARG) 1990
    18 68 Lajovic, Dusan (SRB) Lajovic, Dusan (SRB) 1990
    19 80 Rola, Blaz (SLO) Rola, Blaz (SLO) 1990
    20 85 Berankis, Ricardas (LTU) Berankis, Ricardas (LTU) 1990

    On The Cusp (Young Guns)

    1 11 Dimitrov, Grigor (BUL) (BUL) 1991
    2 39 Vesely, Jiri (CZE) (CZE) 1993
    3 40 Thiem, Dominic (AUT) Thiem, Dominic (AUT) 1993
    4 45 Sock, Jack (USA) (USA) 1992
    5 52 Carreno Busta, Pablo (ESP) Carreno Busta, Pablo (ESP) 1991
    6 53 Kyrgios, Nick (AUS) (AUS) 1995
    7 59 Schwartzman, Diego (ARG) Schwartzman, Diego (ARG) 1992
    8 66 Tomic, Bernard (AUS) Tomic, Bernard (AUS) 1992
    9 88 Kuznetsov, Andrey (RUS) Kuznetsov, Andrey (RUS) 1991
    10 89 Ito, Tatsuma (JPN) Ito, Tatsuma (JPN) 1988
    11 91 Coric, Borna (CRO) (CRO) 1996
    12 97 Krajinovic, Filip (SRB) Krajinovic, Filip (SRB) 1992
    13 98 Gonzalez, Maximo (ARG) Gonzalez, Maximo (ARG) 1993

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    • #3
      HS,

      Look under Tennis Stream on the Nav Bar. I've been posting some blog entries to Facebook Twitter Linked In just trying to increase our profile. But they are also on the site there.

      One thing I wish I had time and could pull off the logistics to do: watch a lot of ITF juniors in person and film. I will be surprised if the next guy to win multiple majors is someone we have heard of much if at all on the tour--yet. Maybe Nick or Dominic...

      Comment

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