2019 Australian Open...ATP 2000...Melbourne, Australia

[stroke]

Oddsmakers have Fed and Nadal both at about 84% chances of winning their next round matches. And Novak at about 88% vs Medvedev.

[stroke]

I have always thought Thiem is truly a big tournament contender only on clay. Alex, I can see him contending on all surfaces. If there is a sleeper, I would definitely go with Medvedev. Regarding Denis, I like his swashbuckler game, reminds me of Henri LeCounte. I don't think Henri could take out Novak in that match either.

[don_budge]

The Shape of Things to Come...

Another Djokovic-Nadal final incoming.

Things are progressively shaping up at the 2019 Australian Open in Melbourne, Australia. Novak Djokovic just polished off Denis "The Menace" Shapovalov. Denis not quite up to being much of a menace to the big boys in the game. Novak doing what he does best...keeping the ball in play and steadily applying mounting pressure on his opponent. Denis did himself well to get a bit of a new do...new hairdo. Long overdue. He looks messy and he plays messy. His clothes are always askew. The game plan is erratic if it exists at all. At one point in the first set Shapovalov made an incredible forehand to set up a break point. But on the next return of serve he pounded a drive backhand long. What's the point? To hit the ball and be a hero? Or should he get the ball in play and put some pressure on Djokovic. You be the judge. He lacks a sort of common game sense. Novak? What can you say? Human backboard.

Some years back I started calling Marin Cilic "The Sleeper" in the draw at the U. S. Open. That was the year that he won. I get the feeling there is another sleeper but the problem is that this "Sleeper" is going to face Novak Djokovic who puts "Sleepers" to sleep for a living. He eats them for breakfast. Daniil Medvedev has been playing a let it all hang out, slash and bash game for the past some time. I think Medvedev won more matches on hard courts last year than anyone else. Don't forget this is due to attrition if you think of all of the reduced schedules due to injuries. But he showed up and played and he seems to be reaping some rewards in his play. Daniil just took out David Goffin in straight sets and he has not dropped a set in the tournament yet. But Goffin, Harrison and Lloyd Harris are no comparison to Novak.

It starts to look like a Djokovic-Nadal final unless you are not ready to give up on Roger Federer yet. There are two different tournaments going on here...simultaneously. There is the top half with an assortment of sundry names and Djokovic. Then there is the bottom half which is really looking like the marquee half of the draw. All of the matches become that more interesting for a couple of reasons but chiefly it is because of the presence of Federer. Federer versus Anybody is still the match to watch and it will be that way until he is eliminated.

The names and the players in the top half are an interesting lot or not. I can't think of much to say about them. But there are two that deserve a couple of words and they seem to be suffering from the same affliction. Too high expectations...too soon. Alexander Zverev won two matches now but the last one was a five setter and one could argue it was unnecessary. Fortunately he has a rather unheard of player who he should turn away in straight sets...if he is smart. All of those sets add up during the tournament and Zverev tends to ramp up too many miles in Grand Slams until he runs out of gas. Zverev conceivable could find himself in a semifinal matchup with Novak Djokovic and this would be a match that Novak would relish. I believe that he would make Zverev cry if he could in this scenario.

Dominic Thiem is the other player that really worries me. He looked so promising a number of years ago but they ramped up the hype and what happened to his game? He stopped developing. All of that attention gives these guys that deer in the headlights look. They are terrified of taking any kind of chance to change their games and more importantly they lose sight of the goal. The goal is the long run...to develop and improve over time. This is where Federer kept his eye on the prize and why he has been at the top of the game forever. Even he could have afforded to take more chances and change and adapt earlier in his career. In his case better late than never. In Thiem's case and in Zverev's case it is unfortunate that there will be very little development in their games because they have too much pressure to be all that they are supposed to be.

I really hope that Stefanos Tsitsipas will not fall in this trap...and I am pretty he isn't. More on Federer and Tsipsipas who is not just Anybody later.

[stotty]

Another Djokovic-Nadal final incoming.

stroke will likely know the odds on that one but, yes, it's well within the realms of possibility. Nadal looks awesome at the moment but so far he has only had opponents he can boss about, and we all know how good he is when he gets to do the bossing. Djokovic looks imperious. I haven't seen Roger play so far yet but he seems to be cruising through nicely.

Can any of the young guns make a dent?

[bman]

Another Djokovic-Nadal final incoming.

[stotty]

Verdasco is a hot head. He plays by trying to kill the other player. Sometimes that edge turns against him. The right amount of aggression and fight is so hard to find. My sense is that Verdasco is just a bit too hard on himself. I also think had he just broken through against Nadal at the AO many years ago it would have been different for him. Even if he lost the AO final, beating Nadal once in a long match would have given him the confidence he needed.

Such fine margins in this game.

True. I remember that match so well. One of the best matches I've seen outside of when the Big 4 play each other. Verdasco has it all. His forehand is beautiful. Beating Nadal that day might well have made all the difference back then...who knows? Like you say, margins can be so incredibly small.

[klacr]

Tomas Berdych continues to look good too. He beats a bona fide tough little hombre in "Little" Diego Schwartzman. He took his time doing it this time...he lost 19 games and a set to boot. But no matter...Tomas is our first hope and line of defence against the Spanish Imposter...Rafael Nadal. Sometimes you just don't like a guy. That was Henry Ford II said just after he fired Lee Iacocca at the Ford Motor Company. Rafa about to take the stage to dismantle another little fighter, Alex De Minaur. I'm not big on Alex. I don't care for his style and a number of other things about him as a player. The service motion has a lot of friction...you can almost hear it like a fingernail dragging across the blackboard. Do they even still have blackboards?

Daniil Medvedev has lost a total of 13 games through two rounds and he is the first line of defence against the other one...Novak Djokovic. Daniil conceivably has a legitimate shot of upsetting Novak. Perhaps not from a bookies point of view...but this guy has been playing some serious ball all year long. But first he must get through David Goffin and Djokovic must get by Shapovalov. Denis "The Menace" seems to ironed out a couple of wrinkles. This will be an opportunity of his young life to get his claws into a big fish.

Berdych is strong. He beat Nadal at the Aussie Open as well back in 2015 I believe. He has the belief. Don't count out My Berdych.

Kyle LaCroix USPTA
Boca Raton

[klacr]

Thrilling match. Shame to lose Verdasco as he is just great to watch. I just love his forehand. He has always had a good serve but hasn't always put it to good use. It wasn't the serve that let him down on that match point, it was the man. He well known for not having the strongest nerve. You can have all the technique in the world but you need a pair of balls as well if you want to win big.

His forehand alone is worth the price of admission. What a monster of a shot. He did beat Nadal a few years ago in the 1st round of the Aussie Open.

Kyle LaCroix USPTA
Boca Raton

[arturohernandez]

Thrilling match. Shame to lose Verdasco as he is just great to watch. I just love his forehand. He has always had a good serve but hasn't always put it to good use. It wasn't the serve that let him down on that match point, it was the man. He well known for not having the strongest nerve. You can have all the technique in the world but you need a pair of balls as well if you want to win big.

Verdasco is a hot head. He plays by trying to kill the other player. Sometimes that edge turns against him. The right amount of aggression and fight is so hard to find. My sense is that Verdasco is just a bit too hard on himself. I also think had he just broken through against Nadal at the AO many years ago it would have been different for him. Even if he lost the AO final, beating Nadal once in a long match would have given him the confidence he needed.

Such fine margins in this game.

[stotty]

Thrilling match. Shame to lose Verdasco as he is just great to watch. I just love his forehand. He has always had a good serve but hasn't always put it to good use. It wasn't the serve that let him down on that match point, it was the man. He well known for not having the strongest nerve. You can have all the technique in the world but you need a pair of balls as well if you want to win big.

[don_budge]

Cilic has come back with some really great tennis and professionalism to even it up at 2 all . Hard not to like and admire Cilic. Such a good player, but to me has had to deal with the toughest era ever with Roger, Nadal, and Novak.

It looks like Cilic has flipped Verdasco. The groundstrokes are just getting pummelled by both players. It's hammer time. Verdasco navigated himself to a match point at 7-6 in the tie-break and then he double faulted. Remember my comments about perfect service motions? If is isn't perfect it may look like a million dollars all match long but just when you need it most...it lets you down.

Verdasco uses a pin-point and I was sort of examining the height of his toss. Not terribly high but compared to Marin's there might just be a bit of wiggle room. Excellent match from both players/sportsmen. Great competitiveness...let's see how they hold up in the fifth. One of the toughest tests in all of sports...the fifth set. It looks like both boys are still hammering it.

[stroke]

Cilic has come back with some really great tennis and professionalism to even it up at 2 all . Hard not to like and admire Cilic. Such a good player, but to me has had to deal with the toughest era ever with Roger, Nadal, and Novak. Verdasco won the highly contested 2nd set to go up 2-0. Then he just kind of let the 3rd one go, which of course happens and is understandable. But Fed would never do that.

[stroke]

Verdasco is looking great up 2 sets on Cilic. Verdasco forehand is dominating the match. He, like Nadal, can go down the line and consistently use that hook spin to create such damaging margain on that shot.

[don_budge]

Minaur is getting knocked about from pillar to post at the moment and doesn't seem to have any armoury against Rafa who is playing extremely well. The balls are having a big impact as, apparently according to the players, they are furring up very quickly. After 4 or 5 games games with Rafa you cannot put the ball away, so they say.

Rafa is looking very handy at the moment.

Didn't see one redeeming thing about Alex that I could like. He reminds me of a typical junior player running around like a chicken with his head cut off. But having said that it really takes a player like Rafael Nadal to exploit this kid. De Minaur may be appropriately nickname "The Demon" because this is the type of player that you absolutely hate to play. Willing to run everything down and unless you can punish him like Nadal he is going to take all day to put down. If you are lucky and don't run out of gas in the process. Nadal looking impressive but he hasn't been pressed. The next round player might just ask him the question. Maybe.

Fernando Verdasco is certainly asking the question of Marin Cilic at the moment. Verdasco up a set and a break is just hammering it on both wings. The longer this goes on either way is good for you know who. If he can get by the "New Kid on the Block". More of this later...hopefully.

[stotty]

He calls himself "The Demon". That will come back to haunt him I am most certain. Every man in the course of his life must face off with the Devil or his minions. To associate yourself with them is a big mistake. Perhaps unwittingly. But nevertheless. A huge mistake.

Minaur is getting knocked about from pillar to post at the moment and doesn't seem to have any armoury against Rafa who is playing extremely well. The balls are having a big impact as, apparently according to the players, they are furring up very quickly. After 4 or 5 games games with Rafa you cannot put the ball away, so they say.

Rafa is looking very handy at the moment.