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Study of 400,000 Tennis Points Measures Pressure's Impact in 'Slam Matches

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  • Study of 400,000 Tennis Points Measures Pressure's Impact in 'Slam Matches

    An article on the Economist summaries a study of nearly 400,000 points played in majors from 2016-2019 and says UFEs do "bunch" under pressure.
    Seems apropos given recent events with Djokovic and Osaka.


    (Metered paywall, i.e.you can read limited articles with registration before subscription is required)

    Excerpt: "A recent paper by David Harris, Samuel Vine and Mark Wilson of the University of Exeter and Michael Eysenck of Royal Holloway University of London finds that top-tier tennis players are surprisingly prone to mistakes caused by situation-driven anxiety—implying that this tendency may be too fundamental for coaching to cure it.


    "The study analysed the rates of both UEs and winners among nearly 400,000 points from tennis’s four leading events in 2016-19. In high-pressure contexts such as break and set points, UEs were 15% more common than under less stressful conditions. Similarly, during points following ues, the chances of a repeat blunder rose sharply."

    Close: "The rate of winners was unchanged by pressure. It did rise after ues, implying that players may try to make up for mistakes by putting away the next point decisively. Nonetheless, the gap in winner-to-ue ratios between matches’ eventual victors and losers was smaller on points after ues than in other contexts. The authors argue that UEs raise awareness of the risk of failure. This could expose players who go on to win matches to the mental state felt more often by losers, causing hiccups in their play.

    "The paper bolsters a growing body of research on athletes’ psychological vulnerabilities. Other studies have found that basketball players’ free-throw percentage dips in the final minutes of close games, and that golfers are more likely to miss putts that have an unusually large impact on prize money. Athletes are often hailed as exemplars of mental toughness. But for everyone else who occasionally succumbs to anxiety, it may be reassuring to know that you are in good company."

  • #2
    Uh, it's harder to perform under pressure? Do we need 400,000 points to see that?

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by johnyandell View Post
      Uh, it's harder to perform under pressure? Do we need 400,000 points to see that?
      Good point. Not need, perhaps but quantify. And some argue the top players are there because they don't fold under pressure - yet numbers show they do.

      In fact, there is evidence pressure is an equalizer, not a differentiator: "the gap in winner-to-UE ratios between matches’ eventual victors and losers was smaller on points after UEs than in other contexts"
      Last edited by jimlosaltos; 09-18-2021, 09:00 AM.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by johnyandell View Post
        Uh, it's harder to perform under pressure? Do we need 400,000 points to see that?
        Using statistics to quantify a tennis match is admitting that you don't know what the hell is going on in the first place. Have never had any use for them...but I am glad that others do.
        don_budge
        Performance Analysthttps://www.tennisplayer.net/bulleti...ilies/cool.png

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by don_budge View Post

          Using statistics to quantify a tennis match is admitting that you don't know what the hell is going on in the first place. Have never had any use for them...but I am glad that others do.
          Yet experts often disagree.

          Sports that are being redefined top-to-bottom by analytics are: Baseball, Basketball, Football .... why should tennis be immune?

          One of my favorite TPN stories is back when John pioneered measuring topspin. (From memory, correct me if I'm wrong) Andy Murray contacted John to find out if he hit with as much spin as Fedal. Andy was disappointed to learn he didn't < g >.

          Comment


          • #6
            True he didn't.

            Comment

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