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  • Serve Study

    Haven't read this yet, but there's a statistical study of top pros serving patterns just out that might be of interest.
    https://link.springer.com/epdf/10.10...G9N5TwmmmPA%3D

    Some might seem like proving observation or common sense, but checking numbers confirms what's right and not.

    Excerpt: "Prediction example: Roger Federer trailing0–1 in sets, 5–6 in games, and facing breakpoint against a right-handed returner. If Federerpreviously served T, which direction will he now serve? How would his predicted servedirection change on first serve compared to second serve? For this unique match scenario, wepresent Federer’s predictive distributions in Fig.7. Consistent with Federer’s temperament,on first serve the predictive probabilities reflect Federer’s disdain for the Body direction and instead favour Wide and T. Meanwhile on second serve, there is a clear preference serving Wide, which incidentally would target the returner’s backhand.

    Example graphic:

    filedata/fetch?id=96347&d=1642357016&type=thumb
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    This gallery has 1 photos.

  • #2
    I like it. All three men like the T most, with Novak going wide more than the other two. I wonder how this looks when they each play each other.

    I like Barty's pattern.
    Stotty

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    • #3
      Predictive modeling will eventually be made easy for coaches to quickly access opponent serve/stroke pattern tendency profiles to use as an opponent scouting tool. Obviously, there is a danger for player application because of human unpredictability. It would be interesting to test the pros' ability to catalog, recognize and retrieve prior play patterns like they have done with chess grandmasters' ability to do so with chess board patterns.

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      • #4
        I think people like Warren Pretorius have been doing this with top players for quite awhile.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by johnyandell View Post
          I think people like Warren Pretorius have been doing this with top players for quite awhile.
          Please, more?

          Ah, here's a link:
          Warren Pretorius is the founder of Tennis Analytics, a company that serves college tennis teams, coaches & players all over the US & Canada.


          And an interview. Haven't watch yet but ...


          Warren Pretorius is the ultimate pioneer in tennis technology usage. Warren was the person getting Dartfish into tennis and now he is the leader in video/stats/analysis as he is working with ATP, WTA, College, and national federations through his company Tennis Analytics. Warren educates and works with the best in the world.


          Warren discusses his own and tennis analytics history, present, and future. Warren talks about relevant stats in practice and match. Warren is as bright as they come and has his pulse on everything related to tennis video and analysis. This is a must listen for anybody into tennis, tennis video/statistics/analysis etc.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by jimlosaltos View Post

            Please, more?

            Ah, here's a link:
            Warren Pretorius is the founder of Tennis Analytics, a company that serves college tennis teams, coaches & players all over the US & Canada.


            And an interview. Haven't watch yet but ...


            Warren Pretorius is the ultimate pioneer in tennis technology usage. Warren was the person getting Dartfish into tennis and now he is the leader in video/stats/analysis as he is working with ATP, WTA, College, and national federations through his company Tennis Analytics. Warren educates and works with the best in the world.


            Warren discusses his own and tennis analytics history, present, and future. Warren talks about relevant stats in practice and match. Warren is as bright as they come and has his pulse on everything related to tennis video and analysis. This is a must listen for anybody into tennis, tennis video/statistics/analysis etc.
            Very interesting to see this. I have not heard of him at all. Interesting that I hear about BrainGame so much.

            I wonder to what extent Pretorius and O'Shaugnessy's analyses line up. The latter has always struck me like a sketch of a match. Yes, we should serve and volley more or serve out wide more. But the nuanced approach would seem to be a lot more complex.

            What Tennis Analytics offers seems a lot more nuanced.

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