Halle and London, ATP 500's

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Nick vs Tsitsipas tomorrow in Halle. Oddmakers have Nick the favorite at an implied probability of winning about 58%. With his serve, which to me is the 4th best in tennis after the 3 giants, and the rest of his game, no doubt, he is a very tough out on grass. Of course, as we saw in his loss to Murray, he will seemingly always be a mental midget.

[jimlosaltos]

Nick won with a break at the end of the third.

Meanwhile, somebody find me Matteo Berrettini's hand doctor. Back from surgery, title in first grass tournament, today took out a reasonable grass player in Dan Evans, 3 and 3. All while averaging 132 MPH on his first serve. Assuming he didn't break the radar gun, that's what the ATP shows an average of 213 kph or 132+ mph. And 75.68% of first serves unreturned.

One can get some fancy silverware with that serve.

[stroke]

Berenttini certainly has a great serve, 1st and 2nd. I would put him and Hubert Hurkacz behind Nick in the 5 and 6 spot. Raonic may have a better serve than all 3 of then, but he has not been around in a while it seems. Berenttini backhand is a lot for him to overcome to win Wimbledon it seems to me though.

[stroke]

Hurkacz gets past Nick in a 3rd set tiebreaker. Nick seemed to me to have the better game, but his ADD stuff is a lot to overcome. Hurkacz is a pro's pro type player with a lot of game himself. Oddsmakers have Medvedev as the favorite in the final, way too much of a favorite to me, at an implied probability of 70% of winning. I personally think Hurkacz is at the very least a toss up vs Medvedev. We will see.

[glacierguy]

What a difference a day makes! The semis at Queen's were played in temperatures about 15 degrees lower than the quarters, the day before. And it was still windy. Cilic promptly lost his recently regained mojo, couldn't serve and couldn't hit a forehand, handing Krajinovic the win. Van der Zandschulp looked miserable in his match against Berrettini, and also couldn't find a first serve. Out of the four, Berrettini was the closest to finding his A-game. Today's forecast is 20C and calm. I'm hoping the finalists will relish the conditions and put on a show.

[jimlosaltos]

Hurkacz gets past Nick in a 3rd set tiebreaker. Nick seemed to me to have the better game, but his ADD stuff is a lot to overcome. Hurkacz is a pro's pro type player with a lot of game himself. Oddsmakers have Medvedev as the favorite in the final, way too much of a favorite to me, at an implied probability of 70% of winning. I personally think Hurkacz is at the very least a toss up vs Medvedev. We will see.

Well, you were right !

Haven't yet seen this, but Medy's second serve hasn't been right since he came back from the hernia surgery. Just getting his rhythm back, or holding back subconsciously on the injury?


ATP:

https://www.atptour.com/en/news/medvedev-hurkacz-halle-2022-sunday-final

"Hubert Hurkacz produced one of the performances of the 2022 grass season so far on Sunday at the Terra Wortmann Open in Halle, where the Pole dismantled World No.1 Daniil Medvedev in the championship match to claim his first title for 2022.

The fifth seed broke Medvedev three times on his way to a quickfire 6-1, 6-4 win that secured his maiden tour-level trophy on grass. The 2021 Wimbledon semi-finalist was imperious behind his serve and dominant from the baseline as he eased to the first ATP 500 crown of his career in just 63 minutes on OWL Arena.

[stroke]

Yes, I was right this one time ha. Hurkacz is definitely in the conversation for the Wimbledon Laver Cup. Nick has the highest ceiling(except for a clinical Novak) for Wimbledon, but I think we would all be very surprised if he could ADD his way to the finals.

[glacierguy]

How about this for beautiful symmetry - in winning Halle, Hurkacz has won his first five ATP finals in a row; and in losing Queen's, Krajinovic has lost his first five ATP finals in a row.

[jimlosaltos]

Yes, I was right this one time ha. Hurkacz is definitely in the conversation for the Wimbledon Laver Cup. Nick has the highest ceiling(except for a clinical Novak) for Wimbledon, but I think we would all be very surprised if he could ADD his way to the finals.

There's an amusing short vid where Medvedev's coach, tired of a frustrated Medy screaming at him constantly, reportedly said "F*** This, I'm out of here" and walked out on him mid-match. We'll see if they make up.

I don't believe Medvedev has won a title since the US Open, and of course he had 3 match points vs Rafa in Melbourne and blew it. So, frustration is understandable, even if behavior is not.

[jimlosaltos]

By the way, I suggest one of you needs to start a thread for Majorca. The draw looks better than the neutered Wimbledon <g>

https://www.atptour.com/en/news/eastbourne-mallorca-2022-scouting-report

Daniil Medvedev defends his crown at the Mallorca Championships, taking place on the Balearic island from 19-25 June. Those trying to stop the World No. 1 in Spain include Stefanos Tsitsipas, Denis Shapovalov and the in-form Nick Kyrgios.

[stroke]

By the way, I suggest one of you needs to start a thread for Majorca. The draw looks better than the neutered Wimbledon <g>

https://www.atptour.com/en/news/eastbourne-mallorca-2022-scouting-report

Daniil Medvedev defends his crown at the Mallorca Championships, taking place on the Balearic island from 19-25 June. Those trying to stop the World No. 1 in Spain include Stefanos Tsitsipas, Denis Shapovalov and the in-form Nick Kyrgios.

Ha, well it will certainly have much more of an impact on player rankings

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Medvedev looking like a #1 player we have not seen in a very long time, and that is not a compliment.