Roland Garros aka The French Open

[jeffreycounts]

A new standard of mesmerizing tennis on full display

This is an all time classic. Wow. My jaw keeps dropping at the shots these guys are hitting.

[stroke]

Sabalenka still pondering why there are no women's matches in the prime slots

[stroke]

https://open.substack.com/pub/hughclarke/p/sinner-vs-alcaraz-roland-garros-final?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=1t7zzc

[stotty]

https://open.substack.com/pub/hughcl...droid&r=1t7zzc

Thanks, stroke. I tend to agree with Roddick. Carlos hit levels at times no one else has, not even Roger. I can’t think of a braver tennis player, nor a more exciting player to watch.
What stands out most is how grounded both players are—so level-headed, so modest. There’s a lot of mutual self-admiration with the Big Three, but these two don’t seem to carry any of that. They come across more like a couple of regular blokes you'd meet on the street who work in McDonald’s.

[jimlosaltos]

Thanks, stroke. I tend to agree with Roddick. Carlos hit levels at times no one else has, not even Roger. I can’t think of a braver tennis player, nor a more exciting player to watch.
What stands out most is how grounded both players are—so level-headed, so modest. There’s a lot of mutual self-admiration with the Big Three, but these two don’t seem to carry any of that. They come across more like a couple of regular blokes you'd meet on the street who work in McDonald’s.

Close analogy. Sinner's father couldn't attend because he had a shift as a cook.

I remember Alcaraz, after his first night match on Ashe pausing to look around at the crowd. Carlos later said something like, "There are more people here than in El Palmar" { His home town }.

[jimlosaltos]

Here's a stat table I got from Chris Clarey. Don't know the original source.

It's dense and a little hard to read (sorry, had to downsize it for the forum to allow it) but pretty comprehensive.

IMHO lost in the overall match statistics are the fall offs in SInner's first serve that we saw throughout the fortnite. After earning the chance to win in straight sets, Sinner won only 7 points on his first serve in the third set. He could serve that badly and beat 38 yo Djokovic, not Carlos.

Similarly, full match stats show Sinner leading the supposedly "crucial first 4 shots" totals with Alcaraz leading the longer rallies. But for the first three sets, Sinner lead in every rally length. It wasn't until his legs gave in the fourth that he fell behind.

filedata/fetch?id=107536&d=1749576320&type=thumb

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[jimlosaltos]

I miss having John ask to round up stats from Roland Garros, since it offers a rare opportunity to get both tours.

Here's a palimsest, cherry picked from this year, without spending hours going through the graphical presentation of the "winner" shot data. There are significant caveats. The FFT is cavalier with this data. Is it for the event? For the match? Is slice mixed in with topspin? Probably. Regardless, some perspective.

What stands out is that Zverev is a unicorn.

Average speeds
Sinner Alcaraz Zverev
Forehand 76 76 80
Backhand 71 68 76
First Serve 119 118 125


Average Forehand Speed

Zverev 80 mph
Fonseca 76 mph
Draper 76 mph
Rybakina 75 mph
Swiatek 75 mph
Sabalenka 73 mph
Anisimova 73 mph
Sinner 76 mph
Alcaraz 76 mph
Musetti 75 mph
Djokovic 75 mph
Coco 72 mph
Rune 72 mph
Andreeva 67 mph

[airforce1]

I miss having John ask to round up stats from Roland Garros, since it offers a rare opportunity to get both tours.

Here's a palimsest, cherry picked from this year, without spending hours going through the graphical presentation of the "winner" shot data. There are significant caveats. The FFT is cavalier with this data. Is it for the event? For the match? Is slice mixed in with topspin? Probably. Regardless, some perspective.

What stands out is that Zverev is a unicorn.

Average speeds
Sinner Alcaraz Zverev
Forehand 76 76 80
Backhand 71 68 76
First Serve 119 118 125


Average Forehand Speed

Zverev 80 mph
Fonseca 76 mph
Draper 76 mph
Rybakina 75 mph
Swiatek 75 mph
Sabalenka 73 mph
Anisimova 73 mph
Sinner 76 mph
Alcaraz 76 mph
Musetti 75 mph
Djokovic 75 mph
Coco 72 mph
Rune 72 mph
Andreeva 67 mph

pretty much inline with historical norm by the look of it.

[airforce1]

Here's a stat table I got from Chris Clarey. Don't know the original source.

It's dense and a little hard to read (sorry, had to downsize it for the forum to allow it) but pretty comprehensive.

IMHO lost in the overall match statistics are the fall offs in SInner's first serve that we saw throughout the fortnite. After earning the chance to win in straight sets, Sinner won only 7 points on his first serve in the third set. He could serve that badly and beat 38 yo Djokovic, not Carlos.

Similarly, full match stats show Sinner leading the supposedly "crucial first 4 shots" totals with Alcaraz leading the longer rallies. But for the first three sets, Sinner lead in every rally length. It wasn't until his legs gave in the fourth that he fell behind.

filedata/fetch?id=107536&d=1749576320&type=thumb

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Rare match where Carlos won the match with few points won.

[jimlosaltos]

After their marathon, some input on how the pros recover, via The Athletic, by Sarah Shepherd at this link ( Paywall/ NYT sub)

Since I ran across this while catching up on the NFL 49ers training camp, I'd add this for perspective. Pro Bowl running back Christian McCaffrey once said he gets an IV every half time and a second one on humid days, I believe it was.

Excerpt:

"The preparation for the final starts as soon as the semi finishes,” says Mark Ellison, a co-founder of elite-athlete nutrition specialist Haute Performance. Ellison worked with Andy Murray around 2012 to 2013, and has also worked with Manchester United and GB Boxing.

“Rule of thumb is that we’re looking to replace 1.5 times the amount of fluid lost in the previous match. If you have a two percent deficit, we’ll be looking to put 1.5 times that back in, because you’re always going to pee some of it out.

“Then we’ll be looking at some big carbohydrate intake: one gram to 1.5 grams per kilo of bodyweight straight away. Repeat that every hour until the next ‘normal’ meal.”

Murray favored sushi to quickly replenish his carbohydrate stores, eating up to 40 pieces after a match (spicy tuna and avocado rolls with spicy mayo preferred). Most players also use carbohydrate-rich electrolyte drinks and shakes with carbohydrate and protein to try to repair the damage to their muscles during a match.

“Tennis is pretty brutal, especially on clay,” says Ellison, “so as well as recovering from a fueling point of view, you’re also trying to manage muscle damage and repair.

“In the 24 hours between semifinal and final, you would want 5 to 8 solid feeds. As a practitioner, your job is to make that volume feel as normal as possible, which is why we hide a lot in drinks, sauces, desserts and high-energy snacks.”

Hydration-wise, the secret is in the sweat. There are few stones left unturned in monitoring how much a player sweats in every condition imaginable, as well as analyzing the composition of that sweat. Some players’ teams travel to tournaments with temperature and humidity gauges, which can be set up on court during practice sessions to assess the environment and thus understand the best hydration strategy. Court conditions are pivotal in determining how much fluid a player loses and how best to replenish it.

“If it’s a cool day, it can be very minimal, but it can go right up to two or three litres per hour, and that’s not easy to replace,” Ellison says.

“It doesn’t matter if you get a bit dehydrated, but the cutoff is around two percent. If your dehydration goes beyond two percent, that’s when it starts to affect concentration and, as you go down that sliding scale, it will start to affect endurance, strength and power.”

Knowing an athlete’s electrolyte requirement allows nutritionists to make up bespoke drinks, as opposed to providing off-the-shelf sports drinks, which can be a bit cautious when it comes to electrolyte content.

During an epic match of the sort played on Sunday, a 75kg male player could use around 4,000 calories. But even before the final, it’s likely they are already a bit depleted when it comes to carbohydrate stores after two weeks of matchplay every other day. An average-sized athlete can store 400g of glycogen in their muscles, another 100g in the liver, and around 10g to 30g in fluids (blood sugar), totaling around 530g of glycogen. But it’s a challenge to eat enough carbohydrate to fill that store."

[jimlosaltos]

pretty much inline with historical norm by the look of it.

Yup. Since TV promotes outliers, it always seems slightly surprising at first how tightly they are clustered.

With the exception of Zverev among the top players.

It seems as if more and more players can hit 100 MPH forehands, yet the averages aren't moving much. Virtually everyone on my somewhat arbitrary list can hit 100 MPH with the possible exception of Andreeva, who is 18 yo and likely to get there since she's already hit 126 MPH on he serve.

[jimlosaltos]

Another Substack devoted to tennis is "Finite Jest" by ex player Andrea Petkovic (Yes, the dancing Petko. It's free.

andreapetkovic.substack.com

Here's her take on Coco of Aryna. Two images

filedata/fetch?id=107564&d=1749680027&type=thumb

filedata/fetch?id=107563&d=1749679940&type=thumb

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[stotty]

I miss having John ask to round up stats from Roland Garros, since it offers a rare opportunity to get both tours.

Here's a palimsest, cherry picked from this year, without spending hours going through the graphical presentation of the "winner" shot data. There are significant caveats. The FFT is cavalier with this data. Is it for the event? For the match? Is slice mixed in with topspin? Probably. Regardless, some perspective.

What stands out is that Zverev is a unicorn.

Average speeds
Sinner Alcaraz Zverev
Forehand 76 76 80
Backhand 71 68 76
First Serve 119 118 125


Average Forehand Speed

Zverev 80 mph
Fonseca 76 mph
Draper 76 mph
Rybakina 75 mph
Swiatek 75 mph
Sabalenka 73 mph
Anisimova 73 mph
Sinner 76 mph
Alcaraz 76 mph
Musetti 75 mph
Djokovic 75 mph
Coco 72 mph
Rune 72 mph
Andreeva 67 mph

The trouble I have with stats is they often miss part of the story.

Take this example:

One player hits a ball at 80 mph but does so 10 feet behind the baseline, aiming at an opponent 2 feet behind the opposite baseline.
Another player hits at 75 mph, but from just 2 feet behind the baseline, to the same target.

You might assume the 80 mph shot is “harder,” but it will actually take longer to reach the opponent than the player hitting at 75mph.

So despite being slower, the 75 mph shot gets there quicker—meaning it's more pressuring and arguably more effective. Speed alone doesn't tell the full story—court position matters.

[stroke]

The trouble I have with stats is they often miss part of the story.

Take this example:

One player hits a ball at 80 mph but does so 10 feet behind the baseline, aiming at an opponent 2 feet behind the opposite baseline.
Another player hits at 75 mph, but from just 2 feet behind the baseline, to the same target.

You might assume the 80 mph shot is “harder,” but it will actually take longer to reach the opponent than the player hitting at 75mph.

So despite being slower, the 75 mph shot gets there quicker—meaning it's more pressuring and arguably more effective. Speed alone doesn't tell the full story—court position matters.

I certainly agree. The "shot quality" measurements often supplied is the best indicator of the players forehand, bh, serve, and serve return. For instance, Sabalenka would have probably been abysmal in all 4 categories in the FO Final

[jimlosaltos]

The trouble I have with stats is they often miss part of the story.

Take this example:

One player hits a ball at 80 mph but does so 10 feet behind the baseline, aiming at an opponent 2 feet behind the opposite baseline.
Another player hits at 75 mph, but from just 2 feet behind the baseline, to the same target.

You might assume the 80 mph shot is “harder,” but it will actually take longer to reach the opponent than the player hitting at 75mph.

So despite being slower, the 75 mph shot gets there quicker—meaning it's more pressuring and arguably more effective. Speed alone doesn't tell the full story—court position matters.

Sorry this answer is so long. I don't have time to cut it down

Yup. You're right. A rough analogy is that in baseball, they measure that and give an "effective velocity", i.e. Aroldis Chapman, for some time the top relief picture in MLB, had the highest effective velocity because he extended so far toward the plate to release the ball that his 100 MPH fastball cut the time the batter had to react by the equivalent of an extra 5+ MPH .

Hawkeye provides this data, the ATP simply chooses not to share it. Several years back, we got the time a returner had to react to serves by Isner (a little over .520 seconds I think) or Fed (maybe 0.720 sec?). Then the ATP stopped it. I believe the ATP thinks it needs to dumb down tennis coverage to appeal to broader audiences { also the excuse for McEnroe's announcing}.

Similarly, MLB's Statcast { a vastly improved version of Hawkeye that is in every stadium vs on some courts} gives peak speed run by any player, as well as averages etc. Ditto NFL football where we know who are the fastest players because they publish the peak speeds -- the exclusive 20 MPH club for guys like Tyreek Hill, Raheem Mostert, and Christian McCaffrey hit 21 MPH, generally on long TD runs or punt returns. NFL also gives how long it takes to get to that peak speed. A guy on Kansas City Chiefs was the fastest to peak of anyone; don't recall his name from several years ago. On the ATP we think Alcaraz is faster than Musetti, but who knows?

So, no. One stat doesn't tell everything. It tells something. Up to us to interpret it. Some numbers provide insights people didn't have from simply watching.

An example: Statcast modeled the ideal swing to hit a home run, completely changing how batters are trained { around 30 deg elevation, exit velocity over 100 mph).

Another: MLB measures "spin components", rather than just measuring RPMs and maybe saying X percent is sidespin. So, pitching coaches teach how to change finger pressure to increase the gyro spin component. You create Shohei Ohtani's almost unhittable "sweeper" {league batting average against it is a paltry .138.}

Pitching coaches used to tell players to "correct" their grip if they threw that pitch. Now everyone is copying him & other Japanese pitchers.

Compare that to the clock model in teaching tennis serves, i.e. hit from the 3 to the 8.

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