Australian Open 2022

[arturohernandez]

FAA played great. He is improving quickly and his temperament helps. Maybe boring is good when you are under pressure.

Sometimes you just have to hang in there. It is such a simple strategy but it goes a long way. If only Shapo, could do the same. Ask, what would Novak do?

https://youtu.be/6vLLkZmOgsI?t=89

[arturohernandez]

Let me try again after some thought on how to articulate this.

See if this makes any sense.

Top ATP players of late all have certain patterns of play we see over and over. The inside-out forehand attacking the backhand. High-topspin to the backhand.

Attacking the second serve by hitting deep up the middle.

Hard serves to the four corners.

Daniil is optimized, through skill and tactically to neutralize the standard patterns of play. The stuff that hurts him, is out of favor.

I wrote some time back that Djokovic appeared flustered on second serve returns when he lost to Daniil in NY. The Russian hits just enough first-serves-as-second to keep Novak from having the confidence to move in.

As for hitting high to his backhand, or there at all, Daniil is 6 ft 6 in, nobody can get the ball up on his backhand short of moon balls, and his backhand is a backboard.

The way to attack players returning from the back wall is either 1) serve & volley (a dying art) or 2) serve short and wide ( something few of the top guys do much of, outside of Federer. Some can do it on one side, such as Rafa to the ad court, Tsitsipas to the deuce).

And for the other players that return serve from the back wall, Daniil has one of the best, wide sliders around.

So, most of the top players have to change their games and go outside their comfort zone to beat Medvedev. We saw Djokovic in Paris beat Medvedev by mixing in some serve and volley play. But he's not really comfortable there, so it's hard to imagine him doing that over best of 5.

Fed is 3-0 vs Medvedev, but that's all before Medy raised his level.

We'll see how Tsitsipas can do vs Peak Medy. So far Stef is only 2 -6 H2H, BUT he's won two of the last three: Roland Garros quarterfinals last year, and 2019 London O2 WTF.

#

A cross post from the Medvedev thread.

Great analysis! Now I get it. It is like Barty on the women's side. She neutralizes everyone's patterns. They are taught to hit hard and go for corners. Barty takes the backhand to the corner and neutralizes it over and over again. Then she just waits for the forehand and hits it to the open court. She also opens the court extremely well with the forehand. Suddenly, no one knows what to do. They are just not prepared to play her. My guess is that if a woman played like Meddy, she would find a bunch of ways to make her pay. She could even S&V very well if necessary.

Cressy took Medvedev to four sets. And each set was close. The thing is that Cressy is a very tall guy playing a smaller guys game. It can work but it is limited.

I think Fed would have a field day with Medy if both at their peaks. There is just no way to play that far back. If he moves in, then it is Fed's advantage inside the court. FAA seemed to bother Medy with some shots at his body. Now imagine having to do that constantly with the ball coming at you quickly. Medy would not be able to get out of the way fast enough. Fed would be rushing him all the time a la Ali (fly like butterfly, sting like a bee).

Medy plays to neutralize people which is very effective. But then he began to attack FAA. He is not afraid to change his game to harass other players. FAA did not serve and volley much and he just seems not as competent inside the court. I keep coming back to the 1hbh creating the concept of moving into the court. It has to be hit way out in front and that teaches a player that playing inside the court is an advantage.

Tsitisipas looked short against Sinner. He is a one hander. It should be very interesting!

[jimlosaltos]

Barty has owned the most effective serve in the WTA for some time. Points won percent way ahead of Arnya Sabalenka at number 2.
Is placement her secret sauce.

Roughly 5 km/h slower than Osaka, but look how much closer she gets to the lines.

Two images from AO web site stats. Top Osaka serving to Anisimova, next Barty serving to Keys. Small data set but Barty's looks, dare I saw it, "Federesque"? <g>

filedata/fetch?id=96516&d=1643329425&type=thumb
filedata/fetch?id=96517&d=1643329425&type=thumb

#

[arturohernandez]

Barty has owned the most effective serve in the WTA for some time. Points won percent way ahead of Arnya Sabalenka at number 2.
Is placement her secret sauce.

Roughly 5 km/h slower than Osaka, but look how much closer she gets to the lines.

Two images from AO web site stats. Top Osaka serving to Anisimova, next Barty serving to Keys. Small data set but Barty's looks, dare I saw it, "Federesque"? <g>

filedata/fetch?id=96516&d=1643329425&type=thumb
filedata/fetch?id=96517&d=1643329425&type=thumb

#

She reminds me of Federer in her style of play. All court player. Very solid serve. I think she is deceptive because I often see returners stand there and watch the ball. It is almost as if they do not know where it is going.

Barty shows us that playing very clean tennis is an art that can pay off. I would be curious to see how much topspin she puts on it. My guess is that it has a lot of topspin which lets her get closer to the lines. It is a lot easier to hit the lines with a parabola than with a flat straight serve.

Sabalenka is tight as a drum. I wouldn't be surprised if her serve has underspin. That thing is flat and she is so wound up. It is painful to watch.

[stotty]

It was always going to be a Meddy v Nadal final in my book. Once Novak was no longer in the stadium, Nadal must have been virtually drooling at the way the draw opened up.

Meddy is favourite but I have a feeling Nadal might pull this off. He's playing well and has plenty in the tank. On top of that he's a force like no other player ever. You just feel he's going to want this so badly.

[jthb1021]

Intriguing men's final! Don Budge would not agree with that hahahaha! So I'll say Intriguing to me...Medvedev channeling Novak makes sense because he plays a similar style in lots of ways, which has given Rafa nothing but problems on hard courts over the last few years. The US Open final a few years back vs. Medvedev the main reason Rafa won was because he was allowed to control the tempo of the match on his serve and slow down play on Medvedev's service games as well. On that day Daniil was the better player and he will be in this final as well! Nadal's basic template for victory with an all out assault on the backhand does him no good in this match. It will be the most physical match he will play all year long and we will see if Rafa has the legs for it...time will tell. Rafa's best chance is his superstar status allowing him to control the tempo of the match like he did in NY. Daniil is so much stronger mentally now and can probably win even if Nadal is allowed to take the microphone away from the chair hahaha! Should be a good one!

[stotty]

Intriguing men's final! Don Budge would not agree with that hahahaha! So I'll say Intriguing to me...Medvedev channeling Novak makes sense because he plays a similar style in lots of ways, which has given Rafa nothing but problems on hard courts over the last few years. The US Open final a few years back vs. Medvedev the main reason Rafa won was because he was allowed to control the tempo of the match on his serve and slow down play on Medvedev's service games as well. On that day Daniil was the better player and he will be in this final as well! Nadal's basic template for victory with an all out assault on the backhand does him no good in this match. It will be the most physical match he will play all year long and we will see if Rafa has the legs for it...time will tell. Rafa's best chance is his superstar status allowing him to control the tempo of the match like he did in NY. Daniil is so much stronger mentally now and can probably win even if Nadal is allowed to take the microphone away from the chair hahaha! Should be a good one!

Great post and hard to argue with any of it. It should be a great final in any event. Let's hope it lives up to its billing.

[tenniscoach1]

Where is Don Budge?

[arturohernandez]

Where is Don Budge?

Good question!

[jimlosaltos]

She reminds me of Federer in her style of play. All court player. Very solid serve. I think she is deceptive because I often see returners stand there and watch the ball. It is almost as if they do not know where it is going.

Barty shows us that playing very clean tennis is an art that can pay off. I would be curious to see how much topspin she puts on it. My guess is that it has a lot of topspin which lets her get closer to the lines. It is a lot easier to hit the lines with a parabola than with a flat straight serve.

Sabalenka is tight as a drum. I wouldn't be surprised if her serve has underspin. That thing is flat and she is so wound up. It is painful to watch.

From the Roland Garros data I used for TPN's articles on speed & spin, Barty had a forehand with the highest spin on the WTA side at over 3,400 RPMs. From memory (too lazy to look it up) only other WTA players I recall at over 3,000 RPMs were Iga Swiatek, Paula Badosa, and Maria Sakari -- all younger players taught outside the U.S. Meanwhile, even young women from the US still have the linear swings and flat balls. Coco had some of the highest velocity but extremely flat.

[arturohernandez]

Let me try again after some thought on how to articulate this.

See if this makes any sense.

Top ATP players of late all have certain patterns of play we see over and over. The inside-out forehand attacking the backhand. High-topspin to the backhand.

Attacking the second serve by hitting deep up the middle.

Hard serves to the four corners.

Daniil is optimized, through skill and tactically to neutralize the standard patterns of play. The stuff that hurts him, is out of favor.

I wrote some time back that Djokovic appeared flustered on second serve returns when he lost to Daniil in NY. The Russian hits just enough first-serves-as-second to keep Novak from having the confidence to move in.

As for hitting high to his backhand, or there at all, Daniil is 6 ft 6 in, nobody can get the ball up on his backhand short of moon balls, and his backhand is a backboard.

The way to attack players returning from the back wall is either 1) serve & volley (a dying art) or 2) serve short and wide ( something few of the top guys do much of, outside of Federer. Some can do it on one side, such as Rafa to the ad court, Tsitsipas to the deuce).

And for the other players that return serve from the back wall, Daniil has one of the best, wide sliders around.

So, most of the top players have to change their games and go outside their comfort zone to beat Medvedev. We saw Djokovic in Paris beat Medvedev by mixing in some serve and volley play. But he's not really comfortable there, so it's hard to imagine him doing that over best of 5.

Fed is 3-0 vs Medvedev, but that's all before Medy raised his level.

We'll see how Tsitsipas can do vs Peak Medy. So far Stef is only 2 -6 H2H, BUT he's won two of the last three: Roland Garros quarterfinals last year, and 2019 London O2 WTF.

#

A second repost of Jimlosaltos post in the Medvevev thread. In thinking tactically, the only thing Nadal can really hurt Danil with would be a forehand curling into his forehand. He could also try to take the backhand to Danil's forehand. Going after Danil's backhand will not work.

For once, Nadal will have to play differently. The regular rules do not apply. He tends to take a dip after the first two sets. To me he seems to be gassed earlier and earlier as he gets older. He is able to make it to the fifth set but 10 years is a lot of difference in age between the two players.

The other thing that will bother Nadal is how flat Medy hits the ball. I see a lot of ways in which as jimlosalots notes above, Medy neutralizes all of the patterns Nadal uses.

In this case, I think he is a very bad matchup for Nadal. Medy already beat the number one player at the US Open in 2021. He sat in the chair and watched all of Nadal's pictures after the US Open final a couple years back. He wants more. He may even see it as his way of protecting his friend Novak's legacy.

He already asked "What would Novak do?" I think come Sunday he will answer that question with the answer he gave the other night, "Make him play." It will be a battle to the end. 5 or 10 years ago I would have no doubt. Today with this matchup I put it at 50/50 at best for Nadal. Shapo was giving him fits. Medy will not breakdown mentally. He will make him stay in rallies as long as possible. At some point Nadal's energy will dip. Nadal is a wizard but this might be a bit too much of an ask as his powers wane.

It should be a great match!!

[arturohernandez]

One more thing. Medy has a playbook on how to beat Nadal. Hit hard and short to the forehand and then open up the court. He can also neutralize Nadal's forehand by hitting cross court and then changing direction. I have been wrong on a bunch of predictions this tournament. So for once I am just going 50/50 here.

[jthb1021]

I hope Nadal brings his charisma and fight to this match and isn't as run down looking as we was down the stretch vs. Shapo. Medvedev isn't going to go for questionable shot selection winners in the 5-8 shot rally length, so Nadal is going to have to grind out some brutal rallies on that surgically repaired foot. The rallies will be from a modern day tactics perspective fantastic, but Nadal will most likely be pushed way past the famous character building "Spanish Suffering" and go to more of a Rocky 3. My prediction "pain!"

[stroke]

Medvedev the favorite, an implied probability of 64% of winning the match.

[jimlosaltos]

A thought on the women's final: Barty vs Collins is a live test of the TPN Gordon forehand vs the flat WTA/Florida forehand. {It's out of my league to dive down to the Type 3 stuff, etc, so I'll happily leave that for you guys")

Although Collins cracks her backhand as well.

Iga Świątek on her semifinal vs Collins from AO site:

"I was prepared for her playing aggressive game, but I think that was the fastest ball I have ever played against on a match," Swiatek said.

"For sure in practices I have hit maybe the same speed, but on matches it's different because players, they don't want to take that much risk. But it seemed for her that it wasn't even risky because she was playing it with control.

Collins was immediately driving her backhand significantly harder against the Pole – at an average of 119km/h{74 mph} , up from her tournament average of 114km/h – and finished the match with 27 winners to Swiatek's 12.

At times, Collins forehand reminds me of Ernests Gulbis' "Swim" forehand

Here's my photo of Dan-Yell winning at San Jose last August

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