Australian Open 2022

[arturohernandez]

Yes it is hard to see Berrettini able to deal with the Rafa forehand to his backhand well enough to win 3 sets. Sinner appears to me have the best chance to beat Nadal.

Berrettini is limited by his backhand. I just don't see why coaches didn't steer him to a 1hbh when that is clearly his preference.

The gun slinging Sinner seems to be the one who would make Rafa's life miserable. He is only 6'2" but just plays bigger. Looks like he could be in the NBA. And we know what a wingspan did for Sampras who played taller than he was.

Should be interesting! If Rafa makes it to the final, then he will face the ultimate person who is ready to take him down. I don't see anyone beating Medvedev at the AO. He is confident and will stay out there all day long.

Whether he can do it for several years is my biggest question. I just don't see tall guys being able to handle the pounding of tennis enough to consistently win Grand Slams.

My question is whether Medvedev is a transitional champion. And if so who is next?

[jimlosaltos]

Monfils and Berrettini in a 4th set in a toss up, Berrettini up 2 sets to one. Nadal gets past Denis in 5. I did not see the match, but it seems Denis was very unhappy with the enforcement, or lack of enforcement, with time violations regarding Nadal. He probably has a valid point. Hey Denis, Stroke here. You were not playing Novak. That was Rafa. Forgetaboutit on that beef.

I'm told that by the 2nd set Rafa was "averaging" 31 seconds a serve and stalling Shapo, who likes to serve fairly quickly, down to 29 seconds. That's why Shapo yelled "You're corrupt" at Carlos Bernardes. Despite the unfortunate choice of words, Shapo has a point. Rafa once had Bernades "suspended" from chairing his matches. Since chairs are contract employees, basically gig workers, and later matches pay more, Rafa basically fined Carlos for not allowing him to take back-to-back bathroom breaks when Rafa put his shorts on backwards. Something is wrong when a player can financially penalize an umpire for doing his job and enforcing the rules against that player

Meanwhile, back to ball striking, despite what Craig at Braingame preaches, Shapo won the 0-4 shot rallies, as well as the longest rallies, and second serve points yet lost the match. Rafa won the "medium length" rallies, by drawing more unforced errors. In this graphic, I've expanded the 5-8 shot rallies so that underneath the totals won, they are broken down into winners (green dotes), forced errors (gray), and unforced errors (black). Let's see if I can upload this ....

Ah, it worked. I remain amazed whenever technology actually works <g>.

One note: Shapovalov has been around so long people are getting the "has he peaked and its disappointing" vibe, but he's only 22 years old and he's beaten Rafa, Medvedev, Delpo, and 2 days ago world number two Zverev. Also, pushed Djokovic around at Wimbledon despite the (3 set?) loss there. He's got upside IMHO.

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[stotty]

Nice stats. Didn't see the match but the stats make me want to watch in on replay. The match seems have been won on the medium rallies as the margins between the two players for long rallies and short rallies are much shorter. I had expected El Shapo to have won a greater proportion of the shorter rallies and Rafa to have won a greater proportion of the longer rallies.

I wonder what Rafa was doing to win so many of the medium rallies.

Regarding Nadal's time-wasting, I think taking an average time between points is misleading if sometimes he was taking 40 seconds to recover at critical moments. In my experience, Rafa takes longer after exhausting rallies, and at key moments to collect himself mentally. I have seen Roger run Rafa from pillar to post and Rafa has subsequently taken longer than allowed to recover. Not sure this is right or fair given it works to Roger's advantage to keep Rafa playing when his lungs haven't refilled.

[arturohernandez]

I'm told that by the 2nd set Rafa was "averaging" 31 seconds a serve and stalling Shapo, who likes to serve fairly quickly, down to 29 seconds. That's why Shapo yelled "You're corrupt" at Carlos Bernardes. Despite the unfortunate choice of words, Shapo has a point. Rafa once had Bernades "suspended" from chairing his matches. Since chairs are contract employees, basically gig workers, and later matches pay more, Rafa basically fined Carlos for not allowing him to take back-to-back bathroom breaks when Rafa put his shorts on backwards. Something is wrong when a player can financially penalize an umpire for doing his job and enforcing the rules against that player

Meanwhile, back to ball striking, despite what Craig at Braingame preaches, Shapo won the 0-4 shot rallies, as well as the longest rallies, and second serve points yet lost the match. Rafa won the "medium length" rallies, by drawing more unforced errors. In this graphic, I've expanded the 5-8 shot rallies so that underneath the totals won, they are broken down into winners (green dotes), forced errors (gray), and unforced errors (black). Let's see if I can upload this ....

Ah, it worked. I remain amazed whenever technology actually works <g>.

One note: Shapovalov has been around so long people are getting the "has he peaked and its disappointing" vibe, but he's only 22 years old and he's beaten Rafa, Medvedev, Delpo, and 2 days ago world number two Zverev. Also, pushed Djokovic around at Wimbledon despite the (3 set?) loss there. He's got upside IMHO.

filedata/fetch?id=96488&d=1643143791&type=thumb

To me Shapo was too impatient in the medium length rallies. Nadal was gassed and Shapo often went for a killer shot when he could have just been aggressive and made Nadal run more. If the match had been played against Agassi, he would have just made Nadal run side to side all day. He might have won two sets but by the fifth he would just collapse.

Shapo really let Nadal off the hook at the beginning of the fifth set. Yes, the bathroom break hurt his momentum but he should have been thinking that it was becoming a war of attrition. Nadal looked gassed and Shapo could easily have gone another hour or more.

I agree that he has huge upside but he needs psychological help to get him to learn to focus on the important task of winning. He is finally learning to play defense. But it needs to improve more. Not sure he understands the effect it has when the ball keeps coming back.

His net skills are getting better.

He is only 22. The worry is whether he will be able to take the next step which requires the kind of fine tuning that the great champions manage but most others do not.

He has huge upside. I hope that he realizes that the main problem is between his ears. If he can straighten that out, the sky is the limit.

[stroke]

FAA up 2 sets on Medvedev and looking very comfortable in putting it on him.

[stroke]

The Guardian: Michael Venus labels Nick Kyrgios ‘an absolute knob’ after doubles defeat.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2022/jan/26/new-zealand-player-labels-nick-kyrgios-an-absolute-knob-after-losing-doubles-match-to-australian-pair

Certainly agree with Michael Venus.

[stroke]

Medvedev fights back to sets all. At this point, he is back to being the favorite here I would guess. FAA has the biggest shot on the court with his silky loose forehand(a lot like Sinner) but he is making more errors with it as the match has gone on. Zverev could definitely take a lesson from Medvedev here about fighting through and competing.

[stotty]

The Guardian: Michael Venus labels Nick Kyrgios ‘an absolute knob’ after doubles defeat.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2022/jan/26/new-zealand-player-labels-nick-kyrgios-an-absolute-knob-after-losing-doubles-match-to-australian-pair

Certainly agree with Michael Venus.

No quarrel there.

[stotty]

4-3 to Meddy with break

Meddy on top here in the fifth. Not sure what FAA can do to prevent Meddy winning at this point.

[stotty]

Meddy comes through to win in five. I was impressed how well FAA read Meddy's serve towards the end of the match.

[stotty]

Well done to Meddy for having the balls to mention Novak in his post match interview with Courier. Not politically correct but he did it anyway. And, yes, that's exactly what Novak would have done....make the opponent win it.

[stroke]

Well done to Meddy for having the balls to mention Novak in his post match interview with Courier. Not politically correct but he did it anyway. And, yes, that's exactly what Novak would have done....make the opponent win it.

A lot of these players come across as very intelligent. Roger and Novak to me great examples. Medvedev also.

[stotty]

A lot of these players come across as very intelligent. Roger and Novak to me great examples. Medvedev also.

Yes Roger, Novak and Meddy are very bright. Meddy is the brightest of the three both off court and his on court IQ is amazing. You find yourself rarely questioning Roger or Meddy's on court decision making for sure.

So disappointing to see Sinner go down so tamely to Tsitsipas. I didn't see the match but I was expecting a closer contest. Tsitsipas v Meddy will be great entertainment for sure. I just cannot see Berrittini beating Rafa unless he can take the racket out of Rafa's hand for large chunks of the match. He couldn't do it against Novak at Wimbledon and I can't see him doing it against Rafa...but you never know.

[arturohernandez]

I watched the first game of Tsi vs. Sinner live. I was too tired from having stayed up the night before to watch Shapo and Rafa so I went to sleep. Based on the first game it looked like Tsitsipas might dominate. Sinner really had no answers for him. Tsitispas is the real sleeper here. He might win the whole thing.

And he was not even on my radar until last night.

[stroke]

Nadal and Medvedev are favorites in the semis. Nadal implied probability of winning 64%, Medvedev implied probability of winning 68%.