Tennis, the Corona Virus, and the Great Unknown
Matt Cronin
On the night of March 8, Indian Wells pulled the plug. The next morning, Miami said it was still on. Then was Miami canceled and the ATP Tour was suspended for six weeks, and the ITF for five weeks. Soon, WTA events followed.
Professional tennis, in just a few days, shut down. Every day, day by day, the other major sports followed -- the NBA, major league baseball, March Madness, soccer -- on and on, all due to Coronavirus.
Right now, the tournaments cancelled include Indian Wells, Miami, Houston, Monte Carlo, and Barcelona. But will the players return on court to play again at the tournaments at the end of April?
Nobody really knows, the way this week has developed. And there could be extreme worst case scenarios.
So in the meantime until we all see what is going to happen, what are the tennis players and fans supposed to do? The players want to compete, to train, and fans want to watch the players at the events or on TV. Obviously they cannot.
One positive is that the players can rest and heal injuries. Usually, the tour starts at the beginning of January, and it goes all the way to the end of November. That is why so many players get hurt -- legs, arms, shoulders, hands, backs, feet.
Most players love to practice, but during a match, they have to push themselves harder. Now, they can practice a lot more but without the added strain of matches, and use the break to work on their games.
Without playing the matches, players have the chance to improve. The top players have managed to do that while on tour: Roger Federer, Rafa Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Serena and Venus Williams and Kim Clijsters, and many more.
If players, especially young players, take the time to improve their games during this break, the level on tour could actually improve when they return. They get to spend a long time training with their coaches, who can help them -- if they actually listen.
But till then, pro players will also have to adjust to concerns about the virus. The same is true for recreational players. They can still hit with a hitting partner, or a friend, but have to be careful about contact on the court and wash their hands when they handle equipment.
Or they can always play against a ball machine or a wall, if they can find one. That is the reality, at least for now.
At some point, the ATP and the WTA will probably return to playing tournaments. If everyone listens about what to do to avoid the virus, and does it everyday, it will be easier.
But if not, the effect could be far more severe and the tour could take much longer to get back up. And who knows what the possible long term financial damage could be, especially at smaller events?
Far Worse?
The possibility exists that this pandemic could be far worse than anyone imagines, going way, way beyond tennis or sports in general.
The New York Times just released some projected worst case models for the spread of the virus in the U.S. In the very worst case scenario, between 160 million to 214 million people could be infected. 200,000 up to 1.7 million could die. 1.7 million would be one half of one percent of the total population of about 327 million. Sound insane? Compare that to the last great pandemic most people don’t even remember. The Spanish flu in 1918.
The population of the U.S. in 1918 was about 103 million. 550,000 people in this country died of Spanish Flu. Up to 100 million died worldwide. The percentage death rate for Spanish Flu in the United States was almost exactly the same as the worst case Corona virus projections, about half of one percent of the total population. In both cases that means 1 out of every 200 people died. There was little mitigation in 1918. The Corona virus worst case scenario is based on a lack of widespread mitigation today.
Likely the steps being taken, if belatedly, means the totals will be lower today, hopefully much lower. But due to the lack of testing, no one knows how widespread the virus is at this point.
People point at the fact there are only a few thousand cases in the U.S. True now, but the vector of reported new cases, even with the lack of testing, is much steeper in the U.S. than that of China or Italy or Iran at the same time in the outbreak.
An elderly nursing home patient in Kansas died recently, with no known contacts with anyone with the infection. The virus is in every state and being spread by people who don’t even know they are infected.
Really, it is up to everyone now to lift themselves up, grasp the challenge we face and do his or her part. If we don’t there will be far, far bigger problems than worrying about when professional tennis resumes.
